Timing Market Turns – 03/17/2006

Market Timing - posted 0919 EST

Swing trade – still 100% LONG

Investor core – still in 100% cash


Certain daily and 130 minute intraday sentiment measures have gone extremes. In one measure, it is at historical bullishness. We have seen extremes leak off some the excess by lateral trading. The triple expiration and new highs during an expiration week may be the cause. I did want to mention these as we approach the next time locus for Monday, March 20th.

We will closely watch the same levels of resistance for the SPX and OEX we have discussed before.

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns UPDATE 3 – 03/16/2006

Market Timing - posted 1547 EST

Swing trade – REVERSAL TO 100% LONG

Investor core – still in 100% cash

Holding long into tomorrow's open.

WBB

Timing Market Turns UPDATE 2 – 03/16/2006

Market Timing - posted 1230 EST

Swing trade – REVERSAL TO 100% LONG

Investor core – still in 100% cash


We are at the Great Wall of Chin-up at SPX 1310 and OEX 595. Can the bulls get above the bar and stay there?

I expect a few attempts to get above this level of resistance. If the indexes eventually get above these levels, then I expect to see at least one downward pullback to test this level during the next few sessions. I will comment as events occur.

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns UPDATE – 03/16/2006

Market Timing - posted 0930 EST Edit @ 1020

Swing trade – REVERSAL TO 100% LONG

- - EDIT: I frequently pray for wisdom. But I always pray to not do stupid things in my life. After seeing the pre-open upward spike in the futures of the NYSE, Dow 30 and the S&P 500, it became undeniable that being short was not only completely wrong, but stupid.

The reversal to a long Swing position was a separate decision. A proprietary indicator also pointed to higher prices in the short term in the pre-open session. It has a remakably good record. It appears to be correct - so far this morning.

Unfortunately, trading is like this. Sometimes I am wrong - but hopefully not for long. When I'm wrong, I'll always admit it and move on.

Sentiment was another factor. As price moved strongly upward, sentiment volume measures and structure moved at a modest pace and only to modestly bullish levels. You can expect to see sentiment get quite bullish near market highs, especially as new all time highs are seen in some indexes. Sentiment did not get extreme yet. This is a contra indicator measuring the emotional action or behavior of the large group of the 'usually wrong'.

I hope this explains the 'why' and the 'what' of now switching to a long position.

WBB

- - EDIT end - -

Investor core – still in cash

WE ARE REVERSING OUR SWING POSITION TO 100% LONG AT THE OPEN. IT MAY LAST FOR 2-3 DAYS.

I will no longer discuss or mention any intraday trades that I may have an eye on executing. I will only discuss the signals for the system that are posted to Timer Trac. - WHY? - I confused every reader here and I'm sorry. I just can't afford to do that again.

We are now 100% long in the Swing position at today's open.

I'll explain the reversal scenario later this morning.

This trade may only last till Friday's close or Monday's open.

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns – 03/16/2006

Market Timing - posted 0910 EST

Swing trade – REVERSAL TO 100% LONG

Investor core – still in cash

WE ARE REVERSING OUR SWING POSITION TO 100% LONG AT THE OPEN. IT MAY LAST FOR 2-3 DAYS.

More in a few minutes.

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns Update– 03/15/2006

Market Timing - posted 1640 EST

Swing trade – 100% short

Investor core – still in cash

As a high risk trade, we haven't suffered too much damage - 5 points on the SPX. We would be back in cash if we saw the higher highs confirmed. This upward move could continue until the next short term locus on Monday. We will exit if SPX 1312 is touched.

We will update before the open in the morning with some intraday time loci to try to get a map of when highs and lows can be expected.


Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns – 03/15/2006

Market Timing - posted 0927 EST

Swing trade – still in cash

Investor core – still in cash

We are going 100% short in only the Swing position sometime today with a stop at SPX 1312. This is a very ultra high risk trade. The better entry may come this Friday. We will use only S&P500 futures and in the money SPX April puts.

I’d rather miss the bus than be hit and dragged by it in the opposite direction. Why? I can always wait for the next one, if it’s going my way.

I just don’t see a buy signal. There was a minor buy on March 8th at the lows for the NYSE. Excluding that one, I just don’t see this upward move being sustainable. The structure looks unusually entropic. It could collapse from this level or slightly higher. That doesn’t mean crash. It means a stall and turn downward is possible. This refers to a very short term view of 3 – 5 days.

We see a good lot of unconfirmed sell signals, and at least 2 may be primed to confirm. The question is, will they and from what level? It is clear to me that this is not the beginning of the move toward the April 11th time locus. This view allows for decline that rebuilds the structural integrity as it proceeds toward the base level of SPX 1240-50. What is instructive about this upward move is that there is still a heart beating in the old bull.

I will update throughout the day without notice. We will go short the TimerTrac Swing position at the open in all 3 indexes.

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns - 03/14/2006

Market Timing - posted 0928 EST

Swing Trade position - 100% cash

Investment core position - 100% cash

Still No Trade

Today looks like it could be the beginning of a spike downward. As I expect volatility this week, the risk of a turnabout could be just as volatile.

The SPX made a glancing blow at 1288 and might try later this week at 1290. The reward to potential reward for being long is nil. Until an upward breakout is coming soon, just not now.

The downward action may entice the day trader. Swing traders should remain in cash.

SPX 1250 is still possible but not likely this week.

Good Trading and God bless.

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns - 03/13/2006

Market Timing - posted 0950 EST

Swing Trade position - 100% cash

Investment core position - 100% cash

No trade!

We see a very volatile and choppy week ahead. Lots of spikes, both up and down, yet no functional progress. The structure will not support any sustained movement in either direction.

At this time, we are choosing to remain in cash. We see this upward move as weak and likely to move laterally for a few hours then drop into the close. The counter upward bounce to this drop will likely occur tomorrow. It should hold for nearly a day perhaps. Ultimately, we see the indexes dropping into the end of month before a significant upward move can begin.

We expect to be able to project from the data points, including today, whether March 19th/20th will be a better entry for a short swing trade.

Our resistance levels are still expected to hold in the near term.

Off topic - I am still not on my 'home' computer system. With my current choppy outlook, we are pressing ahead with previously mentioned website related tasks.

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin