Lateral track into FOMC Meeting, Sept. 18th

Timing Market Turns
W. B. Busin Group Publishing

Current positions - 100% short

It doesn't matter if the FOMC cuts the Fed Funds rate and possibly cuts the Discount rate again. It doesn't matter if the FOMC doesn't cut rates at all. The straw man has been assembled, dressed in sacrificial sack cloth and trudging to the financial gallows. The Fed will be blamed no matter what it does.

That is like setting your house on fire and blaming the Fire Department for not stopping you.
Several weeks ago in this TimerTrac newsletter, we projected the 10-year Treasury Note yield to touch 3.94% and possibly 3.80% at the low of this stock market correction. We believe that those projections are still on target, as the Note yield closed today at 4.408% after breaking late 2006 support at 4.40% last week.

Tap on this Link to the 10-Year Note yield chart:

http://www.market-timing-wbbusin.com/10yearNote09122007MarketTimingbyW.B.Busin.html

If the stock indexes and Treasuries walk quietly laterally towards the FOMC meeting, Sept. 18, we expect rates to then drop quickly and bonds to register their final bullish upward leg. We expect stocks and indexes to drop downward toward the next published Time Locus turning point, Sept. 24th / Sept. 28th.

We expect that the long term 12-18 month look forward for debt will be extremely bearish since we project the yield on the 10-year Treasury Note to reach 5.5% within weeks, and at least 7.0% next year. We will add the 10-year Note to our timing coverage this month.

We view the end of early July high as the end of that bullish move in rates. The June high was just the 3rd wave high of the last leg from the March 2007 low.

Daily Sentiment remains fluctuating within the neutral spread.

http://market-timing-wbbusin.com/Daily_Sentiment_Index_-_Market_Timing_by_W._B._Busin.html

As for the next 4 trading days, we are and will likely stay 100% short in all index positions, both Swing and Investor. The risk is to the downside after the attempted rally into Fed Day.


W. B. Busin
W. B. Busin Group Publication