Timing Market Turns - 04/17/2006

Market Timing for Daily and Intraday Trading Options, Futures and ETF's on SPX, NDX, and DJIA.

Check each index's blog (links to your right) for updates and information about trades.


This is option expiration week and the indexes appear to be in neutral. They may trade laterally this whole week but the probabilities point toward a downward move. The risk for traders is staying too long in their trade with paper profits and hoping for more. Swing traders are also faced with a similar exposure.

Decide on your stops before entry, then stick to them. Take any loss quickly. Remember that this is still a rolling top that is going to try to make emotional traders into angry fools.

I have listed resistance and support levels for each index. They should be good until broken and closed below or above. If you think the support levels are quite wide then look at a daily chart and find tighter ones. I could not find them. The nearby support levels will break easily with any sharp moves backed up by volume.

The law of Physics may play the ‘equal and opposite reaction’ to any spikes today through Wednesday. Sometimes lows break without a test. Other times, lows will be penetrated, bounce to the upper range limit then laterally and then the full breakdown that does not recover back up through and into the channel. I am not referring to a crash scenario, just where support breaks once and for all in that movement or swing.

If resistance breaks and the indexes trade above those levels for more than 2 hours, then stand aside for the day to allow them to settle the direction question.

Check each index's blog (links to your right) for updates and information about trades.


Good Trading and God bless you all.

W. B. Busin