Timing Market Turns - 03/01/2006

Timing Market Turns - posted 1330 EST

Market Timing for Swing Traders – 100% short from Monday, February 27th.

Market Timing for Investors – moving to 100% in short


We are entering short positions in our core Investor positions beginning now and proceeding into today's close.


Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Market Timing Update 3 - 02/27/2006

Timing Market Turns - posted 1547 EST

Market Timing for Swing Traders – 100% short

Market Timing for Investors – still 100% in cash


We are entering short positions in our Swing Trading positions before the close today.

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Market Timing Update 2 - 02/27/2006

Timing Market Turns - posted 1350 EST
Market Timing for Traders – still 100% in cash

Market Timing for Investors – still 100% in cash


We are becoming more likely to go 100% short the indexes in our swing trading position at or near the close today. An afternoon decline into the middle of the SPX range will likely keep us in cash. New highs into the SPX 1305 to 1310 range will get us 50% short. Above that level, we will continue to stay in the loge. A downward move to or below today's open will probably see us at 100% short the swing position.

For our core investment position, we want more confirmation of a significance of the time loci. Our current downward target levels are not deep enough to warrant an "all in" wager with the March 13th time locus less than 10 trading days ahead.

Our SPX target levels for the coming swing downward are at the SPX 1270 area. We had projected the March 13th time locus as a high. We continue to rate its significance as strong but the potential for a high then is now at 50%.

Trading Plan
A reader will often see us repeating or sharing how we are viewing our trading plan. It is always from a conservative and disciplined perspective. As anyone can see, trading with these amazing time locus points is only part of the trading decision process.

New traders and investors (we have quite a few) reading this blog should understand that in the coming 45 days, the indexes will turn down and in dramatic form. If you have never traded in a down market (see my post on the Brief History of Early 2006), I suggest staying in cash during the balance of 2006.

Trading plans and discipline is firstly about preserving your family's capital. Trading with margin and leverage can impoverish you faster than a natural disaster. Spend the balance of this year reading and learning about investing and trading. The payoff from studying will amaze you. Please don't put your self at risk or your family's well being on the market's gaming table.

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Market Timing Update - 02/27/2006

Timing Market Turns - posted 1155 EST (next update at 1400 EST)

Market Timing for Traders – still 100% in cash

Market Timing for Investors – still 100% in cash

At this time, only the SPX, RUT and the NYA have continued to make new highs relative to the January highs. The OEX, Dow, NazComp, NDX and the SOX have yet to exceed those high levels.

We remain in cash and await a clearer pattern in the volume structures of the indexes. The S&P futures also lags the January highs.

When we see this many differences, among many other indications, we will claim our seat in the viewing loge and wait for the picture to clarify itself.

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Market Timing - 02/27/2006

Timing Market Turns - posted 0915 EST

Market Timing for Traders – still 100% in cash

Market Timing for Investors – still 100% in cash


We expect to be short the indexes soon, perhaps by the end of today’s trading. This will be a risky trade. I don’t expect to have more than half of a swing position at risk. I will update before noon today.

There is a remote chance for an upward breakout above SPX 1303. That may change the patterns in volume and sentiment that are signaling a change as is the expected time loci of the February 24th and today the 27th.

An even more bullish event would be some kind of dramatic drop in the indexes during the day that reverses upward to give some indication of upward trend continuation.

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin