Welcome to the Blog of the W. B. Busin Group Publishing.

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It is still FREE, but not for long. You will get all of our trades before we record our Swing trades and Investor Core trades at TimerTrac.com.



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Saturday, April 08, 2006

Timing Market Turns - 04/08/2006

The point of this is to simplify and shorten our work load. If this scroling script works for you and us, the updating process could be so much shorter than the normal 10-12 minutes to get all things formated, aligned, etc.

Please refresh the page. We are trying to make the script scroll upwards or downwards. Our techno assistant is unavailable at this moment.

direction="up" loop="true" width="35%">

We will continue to work on this. Tomorrow, we will post a view of our IF/THEN strategy we will employ early next week. Thank you for bearing with this testing. God bless. WBB


To keep the scroll trimmed and brief, we can edit the scroll and paste it in this same post such as this:

From the scroll -
I want to find a faster and easier way to update during the trading hours. What do you think? If YOU like this then give us a comment or do nothing. If it is not visible, then you won't know what we are discussing. :)

Look!! I can enter new text very quickly and speed up the scrolling speed too.
So during the trading hours,
we can post our information like this:
Time Locus 5@ 1315-20, 1345, 1425.
THIS IS A TEST.

We are also trying an auto refresh script
as a way to keep readers
from having to do this themselves.

We will also use this same scroll
on the other 3 sites.
You will see their links posted
in the sidebar just below the sponsors.

We can also include Links
in this scroll that can be clicked on like this one to the SPX blog. Click here.

Time Locus 5@ 1315-20, 1345, 1425 means, an intraday time locus turn point on a 5 minute bar chart will be seen at 1315-1320 EST, and another at 1345 EST, and another at 1425 EST.



WBB

Friday, April 07, 2006

Timing Market Turns 5 - 04/07/2006

Market Timing - posted at 1837 EST


Swing trade - SPX 1298 stop hit - 100% cash positions.

Investor core - SPX 1298 stop hit - 100% cash positions.



A small gap at SPX 1301 was just covered. I expect the 1100 EST to be a high.

1145 would then likely be a low.

We have moved to a full cash position. The trades are executed at the respective index's closing price.


Looking at the three indexes and their structures will explain why we have separated them into different blogs. We will also trade them separately on TimerTrac. The system lost on the Dow trade, made a few points on the SPX and approximately 50 pints for the NDX trade.

It is further evidence of different structures setting into a top formation.



Are you disappointed because of the Dow loss? because of the small gain in the SPX trade? have you been ecstatic about the large gain in the NDX, but now that we have closed it, you are a fair bit sad and still long your NDX position?


Be truthful with those questions.

Just to yourself, don't tell me.

This answer will tell you what you are mentally as a trader or investor.

If you answered yes to any part of that extended question, just face the reality that you are unfortunately quite normal! Yes, normal. Normal does not go far to find a large flock of their own kind. Mr. and Mrs. Normal are the ones that will have reason to be confused in a day or two.

If you answered with integrity that you had no emotional attachment to these last trades. Then you may be in a solo circular high altitude flight with a few other birds of prey. Trading AND investing is little more than seizing high probability opportunities and coldly executing your plan of attack. The young birds of prey dive more often and miss, the veterans dive when the possibilities or probabilities are worth the risk. Veterans don't mind missing, it is just part of the stalking of the hunt, the game's bet management.

If you think this was a put down or a silly analogy or an attempt to seem superior, you are mistaken. It is how traders think. Nobody gets to win the game or be a bird of prey before they learn the rules of the contest do they. How did I feel/think as the SPX went to 1298? As I was executing the orders, the one thought was "the market needs a rest, does it? Well, then, let me get ready to short these buggers."

In that view, Monday might be quite a mess. Gapping down more than 10 SPX points or more may not be covered for weeks. I hope for an up open and sideways to allow the last few of the smart money holders out of the ring before the pitch battle is entered.

I will discuss more on this tomorrow after we run numbers for the downward move to come. The turn is at hand. It may start a day early or right on time on Tuesday. More on that later, as I say.

If you don't trade with leverage, as in futures or shorting stocks, I will have a suggestion or two for those not wanting to carry that risk.

Housekeeping: Questions about the sponsors and supporting us here - thank you again for those comments and support in that area. The sponsors actually bid on position in the grouping you see, the most for first position, etc. We cannot ask for a particular sponsor as has been asked by several readers. We can 'ban' certain sponsors if we thought it was best. But we have not seen any sponsor that is unethical or not worthy of credibility. Google's massive computers do all the placement of each sponsor based on the key words that a sponsor wants to be associated with in their campaigns.

Again we thank you for looking into these sponsors. They seem to be a fine lot.


More Saturday afternoon.

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

P.S. Blog humor - Blogger, our host, is owned by Google. The text entry page has a nice and easy to use format with a spell checker. When I have time I use it. BUT, the spell checker does not recognize the word 'blog' or the word 'google'!! :)

FAQ - 1, 2, 3, 4 updated

EDIT: 1620 EST - re-published to keep it on top of the list of editable posts here. I will add to it this weekend.

I will continue to add to this as the week progresses.

1. What is a locus or loci?

locus

SYLLABICATION: lo·cus
NOUN: Inflected forms: pl. lo·ci (-s, -k, -k)
1. A locality; a place. 2. A center or focus of great activity or intense concentration: the cunning exploitation of loci of power; the insulation from normal American society (Clifton Fadiman). 3. Mathematics The set or configuration of all points whose coordinates satisfy a single equation or one or more algebraic conditions. 4. The position that a given gene occupies on a chromosome.
ETYMOLOGY: Latin.

Whether singular, locus, or plural, loci, these represent identified points in time for a change of direction. In small increment timeframes, the amount of time of that change may be as short as 1 or 2 bars. This is visible during fast movements downward or upward. It is a pause. Nevertheless, these pauses are essential to creating the structure needed to track the movement's progress unto its end.

Locus timing points or time locus points are the same thing. They are times of expected turns or changes. They are computed using algorithms. They are proprietary and we don't discuss them. The direction is a subjective decision made by us and based on technical analysis components.

A daily market turn or time locus, such as the April 11th or the recent March 13th and March 28th, are derived by algoritms nearly identical to the ones used to find turns in the one minute timeframe.

2. What is a Swing trade/trader and what is an Investor/Investor core?
Swing trades can last for a day or for days. They can last longer too. Investor/investor core is a longer horizon for profitability of weeks or months. We use absolute stops. That means when they are hit the stop level, we execute the trade.

In the weeks past, we have traded both position types together because of the unstable structure for the longer timeframe. When long term tops are forming across the broad indexes, each index begins behaving much differently from another. They adopt different structures and volume patterns.

3. Are the signals end of day or intraday?

All signals are formally announced here at this time. They are executed at the open or at the close. The reason for this very limiting type of trade execution is due to TimerTrac's (the independent group that tracks hundreds of timing signals - www.timertrac.com) can only handle those two types of signals. That does reduce a signals ROI and risk to return rate, but that is plainly the way TimerTrac has arranged to care for the massive number of signals.

Added for clarity - Today, 4/07/2006, was a good example of this. When SPX 1298 was touched, I went to the TimerTrac's (TT) site and entered the sell order for all the index positions which re-established a 100% cash position for all of the TT signals (a signal is what TimerTrac calls a change in status of a trading system). On their 'books', our trade was given today's closing price of each index, even though we entered it during the trading day.

We trade 6 signals with them, two for each index. One signal is for a swing trade and the other is for an investment trade. Swing trades can last from 3 to 20 days in a trending movement. Investment trades can last much longer.

Recent weeks have been very choppy and volatile as I stated they would be several times here. The real volatility begins next week. Some new traders might want to look at the volatility in 2000 and 2001 for a primer on how fleet footed a trader must be. The last few weeks is the appetizer for some real downward swings and upward rebounds. You might think of the recent action as being stalled in traffic and the coming action as being thrown into a Formula 1 racecar at 200 miles per hour.


On the other hand, during the trading day, yesterday when the SPX was moving upward rather quickly in the afternoon session, I mentioned that day traders would take profits at or near the highs. We are not yet prepared to call the intraday swings everyday. Everyone gets confused. Occasionally we will mention the potential scalp or a very short term set up. The choice of what to do with that information will always be the readers.

4. Do you have any predictions for the housing market?

The residential housing (existing and new construction) market is a critical part of the economy. Interest rates have an impact on this market. It trends and reverses trend with as interest rates reflect changes in inflation. It also is affected by demand and supply. The irony is found when looking at a 'hot' market. Fifty miles from the 'hot' market could be a cold market, that is, an entirely different real estate climate.

With that serious caveat, the housing market has dropped by some measures, i.e., prices and inventory turnover, along with days on the market for existing homes. I see that continuing but flattening through most of the year. Next year may prove a more somber time for sellers and builders. That is always a good opportunity for buyers, especially first time buyers.

Depending on your buy/sell needs, I would sell now and I would buy late next year or early 2008. In 2008, distress sales will be common again.

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns 4 - 04/07/2006

Market Timing - posted at 1550 EST


Swing trade - SPX 1298 stop hit - 100% cash positions.

Investor core - SPX 1298 stop hit - 100% cash positions.


A small gap at SPX 1301 was just covered. I expect the 1100 EST to be a high.

1145 would then likely be a low.

We have moved to a full cash position. The trades are executed at the respective index's closing price.


Looking at the three indexes and their structures will explain why we have separated them into different blogs. We will also trade them separately on TimerTrac. The system lost on the Dow trade, made a few points on the SPX and approximately 50 pints for the NDX trade.

It is further evidence of different structures setting into a top formation.

More after 1630-45 EST.



Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns 3 - 04/07/2006

Market Timing - posted at 1100 EST


Swing trade - SPX 1298 stop hit - 100% cash positions.

Investor core - SPX 1298 stop hit - 100% cash positions.




A

small gap at SPX 1301 was just covered. I expect the 1100 EST to be a high.

1145 would then likely be a low.


We have moved to a full cash position. The trades are executed at the respective index's closing price.

More after 1430 EST

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns 2 - 04/07/2006

Market Timing - posted at 1100 EST


Swing trade - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1298.

Investor core - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1298.

Time locus for turns - 5 minute timeframe- 1020,1100,1145,


A small gap at SPX 1301 was just covered. I expect the 1100 EST to be a high.

1145 would then likely be a low.

More after 1200 EST

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns - 04/07/2006

Market Timing - posted at 0951 EST


Swing trade - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1298.

Investor core - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1298.

Daytrader/scalper would exit longs here at SPX 1312 at 1440 EST

A low here at the 1440 time locus is positive. Holding this level toward the close, and staying above SPX 1305 today will give a good platform for tomorrow's trading.


Time locus for turns - 5 minute timeframe- 1020,1100,1145,

More after 0945 EST

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Thursday, April 06, 2006

Timing Market Turns 7 - 04/06/2006

Market Timing - posted at 1443 EST

EDIT: I meant to do this earlier - I will post up answers after the close to questions asked through this blog's Comment.

Swing trade - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1298.

Investor core - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1298.

Time loci for Turns, 5 minute timeframe - 1355,1440

In post 4 today, I wrote: "Daily resistance at SPX 1310 is the level that must be surpassed to maintain the upward daily trend - within 2 days from our trend parameters." The pit traders must be reading this blog too! -:)

Daytrader/scalper would exit longs here at SPX 1312 at 1440 EST


A low here at the 1440 time locus is positive. Holding this level toward the close, and staying above SPX 1305 today will give a good platform for tomorrow's trading.


More after 1630 EST

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns 6 - 04/06/2006

Market Timing - posted at 1440 EST

EDIT: I meant to do this earlier - I will post up answers after the close to questions asked through this blog's Comment.

Swing trade - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1298.

Investor core - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1298.


Time loci for Turns, 5 minute timeframe - 1355,1440


In post 4 today, I wrote: "Daily resistance at SPX 1310 is the level that must be surpassed to maintain the upward daily trend - within 2 days from our trend parameters." The pit traders must be reading this blog too! -:)

Daytrader/scalper would exit longs here at SPX 1312 at 1440 EST

More after 1430 EST

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns 5 - 04/06/2006

Market Timing - posted at 1342 EST

Swing trade - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1298.

Investor core - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1298.


The SPX is at important intraday support levels SPX 1305, below that at 1301-2. Daily resistance at SPX 1310 is the level that must be surpassed to maintain the upward daily trend - within 2 days from our trend parameters.

I was wrong about the tight range and lateral trading for today. SPX 1305 represents 55% retrace of the upward move beginning Tuesday. So that getting to 1301 and possibly to 1297-8 should not be a surprise. If SPX holds above 1300 by today's close, I will move up stops to 1300 with a close above 1304-5.


Time loci for Turns, 5 minute timeframe - 1355,1440,

More after 1430 EST

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns 4 - 04/06/2006

Market Timing - posted at 1238 EST

Swing trade - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1298.

Investor core - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1298.

Time loci for Turns 5 minute timeframe - 1120,1130,1140,1155,1210

Three movements down from the 1520 high yesterday. SPX should get back into the range and then move laterally for the next 90 mintues to 2 hours.


The SPX is at important intraday support levels SPX 1305, below that at 1301-2. Daily resistance at SPX 1310 is the level that must be surpassed to maintain the upward daily trend - within 2 days from our trend parameters.

I was wrong about the tight range and lateral trading for today. SPX 1305 represents 55% retrace of the upward move beginning Tuesday. So that getting to 1301 and possibly to 1297-8 should not be a surprise. If SPX holds above 1300 by today's close, I will move up stops to 1300 with a close above 1304-5.


More after 1400 EST

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns 3 - 04/06/2006

Market Timing - posted at 1113 EST

Swing trade - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1298.

Investor core - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1298.


Time loci for Turns 5 minute timeframe - 1025,1035,1055

Normal tight range with close grouping of loci.


Time loci for Turns 5 minute timeframe - 1120,1130,1140,1155,1210

Three movements down from the 1520 high yesterday. SPX should get back into the range and then move laterally for the next 90 mintues to 2 hours.


More after 1300 EST

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns 2 - 04/06/2006

Market Timing - posted at 1025 EST

Swing trade - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1298.

Investor core - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1298.


Time loci for Turns for tomorrow's open - 0940, 0945 and 1015

I expect a modest range today and continuing to drift upwards. If there is little to discuss in action for the indexes, chat up a forum or an IM line. Share this blog with them.

Thank you for the comments and requests for additional covers of indexes. I don't know if all are possible at this time. Try the 3 new blogs first, then add to it as time progresses is a good way to start isn't it.


Time loci for Turns 5 minute timeframe - 1025,1035,1055

Normal tight range with close grouping of loci.


More after 1130 EST

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns - 04/06/2006

Market Timing - posted at 0933 EST

Swing trade - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1298.

Investor core - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1298.

Time loci for Turns for tomorrow's open - 0940, 0945 and 1015


I expect a modest range today and continuing to drift upwards. If there is little to discuss in action for the indexes, chat up a forum or an IM line. Share this blog with them.

Thank you for the comments and requests for additional covers of indexes. I don't know if all are possible at this time. Try the 3 new blogs first, then add to it as time progresses is a good way to start isn't it.

More after 1015 EST

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Wednesday, April 05, 2006

Timing Market Turns 7 - 04/05/2006

Blogger has a maintenace outage scheduled for 2000 EST for 45 minutes.

Market Timing - posted at 1956 EST

Swing trade - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1298.

Investor core - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1298.

The major factor as the SPX approaches the April 11th time locus for a major turn. It appears that the date will be a high as we predicted nearly 3 months ago. The four days left must only move 21 points to reach a specific SPX 1233 target. The structure of the upward movement is missing too many characteristics of a pulsive movement. It has too many corrective characteristics.

Look at the chart below:
The indexes do not all move in the same step nor are their structures complete. The major question for the rest of 2006 and most of 2007 is not about the depth of the coming downward correction. The question must be, what will the structure and shape of the correction look like at year end. That picture will give the answer to how deep the ultimate decline will be. I'll be finishing that explanation after the turn is made next week.

Comparison of $SPX,$NYA,$NDX,$INDU,$SOX,$RUT

Time loci for Turns for tomorrow's open - 0940, 0945 and 1015

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns 6 - 04/05/2006

Market Timing - posted at 1542 EST

Swing trade - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.

Investor core - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.


Time Locus 5 minute price bars - 1445 Low - then upward toward ?? caution

Time Locus 5 minute price bars - 1525 high - then downward into the close


Time Locus 5 minute price bars - 1530,1550,1600(triple) [a triple is 3 time loci designating the same time]

We are at 58% of revenues today. :(

More before 2000 EST

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns 5 - 04/05/2006

Market Timing - posted at 1457 EST

Swing trade - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.

Investor core - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.

We still have not gotten a resolution for being wrong about a low at the 1305 EST locus. The time was correct. Structure since the January highs has characteristics found in corrective phases, not in pulsive phases - many overlaps. Even though this movement is corrective and forming a top, the poor structure could continue. Poor structure and symmetry makes for choppy trendless periods. That environment demands faster profit taking and tighter stop loss parameters.

Time Locus 5 minute price bars - 1445 Low - then upward toward ?? caution


Time Locus 5 minute price bars - 1525 high - then downward into the close

We are at 52% of revenues today. :(

More before 1600 EST

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns 4 - 04/05/2006

Market Timing - posted at 1437 EST

Swing trade - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.

Investor core - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.

The Russell 2000 (RUT) and the Dow indexes are the only laggards for new cash highs today. We expect the SPX to reach 1320 by tomorrow's close as the indexes should continue the upward move toward the close today.

We will raise our stops this afternoon after the close.


We still have not gotten a resolution for being wrong about a low at the 1305 EST locus. The time was correct. Structure since the January highs has characteristics found in corrective phases, not in pulsive phases - many overlaps. Even though this movement is corrective and forming a top, the poor structure could continue. Poor structure and symmetry makes for choppy trendless periods. That environment demands faster profit taking and tighter stop loss parameters.

Time Locus 5 minute price bars - 1445 Low - then upward toward ?? caution
More before 1500EST

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns 3 - 04/05/2006

Market Timing - posted at 1357 EST

Swing trade - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.

Investor core - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.


Intraday time loci for lows - 1245 & 1305 EST - if this low area gets structure and volume patterns to cooperate, a rally above resistance may get underway.

EDIT @ 1300 EST - A resistance at SPX1316 should be the first stop - but it may just run through that level to SPX 1320


The Russel 2000 (RUT) and the Dow indexes are the only laggards for new cash highs today. We expect the SPX to reach 1320 by tomorrow's close as the indexes should continue the upward move toward the close today.

We will raise our stops this afternoon after the close.



More before 1500EST

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns 2 - 04/05/2006

Market Timing - posted at 1305 EST

Swing trade - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.

Investor core - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.


Intraday time loci for lows - 1245 & 1305 EST - if this low area gets structure and volume patterns to cooperate, a rally above resistance may get underway.

EDIT @ 1300 EST - A resistance at SPX1316 should be the first stop - but it may just run through that level to SPX 1320

More before 1400EST

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns - 04/05/2006

Market Timing - posted at 1211 EST

Swing trade - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.

Investor core - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.


The SPX opening gap is now closed. Why the index gaps like this is not an issue for us. At or shortly after the open, if spreads between the ask and the bid remain in place (no trade) on just a few of the major stocks, a gap at the opening computation of the index will occur.

At 1215 EST, a 5 minute time locus calls for a high.


We expect more lateral movement with a through the noon hour.

More at 1300EST

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns - 04/05/2006

Market Timing - posted at 0445 EST

Swing trade - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.

Investor core - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.

We want to show our readers a fair bit more of the specific indexes we are trading. Most investors and traders follow all the broad indexes. Many trade based on only one or two indexes. We have set up blog sites for each of the three indexes, the SPX, the DOW and the NDX.

The blog sites won't be actively getting intraday posts till we get a logical and organized routine. We will continue to post here even after the three new sites get started.

We will use this site for a variety of other indexes and traded instruments.

In the fast markets certain to come this way after the highs are in, it will help to centralize posting to one site for those brief periods. We can use this site for that environment.

Here are the blog sites:

Timing Dow Market Turns

Timing NDX Market Turns

Timing SPX Market Turns

Go have a look, and mark them up in the browser favorites. Comments are always welcome and not published if you ask so.


We will update during the presession if needed.

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Tuesday, April 04, 2006

Timing Market Turns 4 - 04/04/2006

Market Timing - posted at Midnight EST

Swing trade - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.

Investor core - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.


We expect the upward move to progress through tomorrow's afternoon session. We no longer have expectations of a powerful upward move lasting multiple days. The intraday structure has shown signals of transformation to "ratchet and spike" behavior. This is not uncommon but it does make volume studies more complicated.

A strategy we may use in this environment is to set a target for each index position and take 50% or even 100% of the position to a cash position. We will let the indexes push that agenda by their action before the next major time locus on April 11th. Or, we may move the stops up much closer to the current range before the 11th.


Announcement: By tomorrow morning EST, we will have some new "progress" to share with all our mates here. No, C.C., it's not the website! -:)) We believe it will be an improvement, even as it will be much more work for all of us. We think our readers are fabulous. You have shown us your gratitude by your encouraging comments and supporting our sponsors. May God bless all of you. Thank you.


Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns 3 - 04/04/2006

Market Timing - posted at 1605 EST

Swing trade - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.

Investor core - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.


We expect the upward move to progress through tomorrow's afternoon session. We no longer have expectations of a powerful upward move lasting multiple days. The intraday structure has shown signals of transformation to "ratchet and spike" behavior. This is not uncommon but it does make volume studies more complicated.

A strategy we may use in this environment is to set a target for each index position and take 50% or even 100% of the position to a cash position. We will let the indexes push that agenda by their action before the next major time locus on April 11th. Or, we may move the stops up much closer to the current range before the 11th.

More later in the evening EST. Sometimes I forget it is evening in the east but afternoon out here. :) When the European session opens for currencies, it's only midnight here. Short naps in the afternoon allow me to trade for a few hours there, which is all one needs in that marketplace.



Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns 2 - 04/04/2006

Market Timing - posted at 1345 EST

Swing trade - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.

Investor core - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.


We think the SPX should drift upward toward resistance at 1310. An intraday time locus is presently in play at 1345 to 1400 EST. We expect more lateral to upward action into tomorrow morning.


Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns - 04/04/2006

Market Timing - posted at 1125 EST

Swing trade - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.

Investor core - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.


What has not happened is new lows being confirmed, giving us an indication that we are wrong. The predicted turn today at the noon locus was precisely called for as the retail buyers became exhausted.


Yesterday and today are good examples of what the equity markets next few weeks and months will be like. Yesterday, the retail public bought for about two hours and ignored the opening gap. Then held for two hours. Then sold for two hours. Then finally this morning, the last of the selling ended didn't it.

Without a gap today, the indexes may make upward progress that lasts longer than a few hours.

While many readers are familiar with this pattern, some are not. It deserves mention for that reason.

We are taking a new direction at this blog. We should be ready to share that by tomorrow. We want to improve and progress.

The delay in our posts this morning -

We found but could not kill a virus. It hides under a variety of names. Vundo is the named version we have been cleaning today. It required two freeware programs and technical help to be rid of it. Here is a starting reference: Vundo



Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Monday, April 03, 2006

Timing Market Turns 8 - 04/03/2006

Market Timing - posted at 2320 EST

Swing trade - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.

Investor core - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.


At 1558, the downward structure appears nearly complete. Tomorrow may finish the gap closing movement.


We are still pointed to the 11th of this month for a high. This trade is only 4 days in length but may have ground some swing traders into mush by now. The next three days will show the path of the structure building here won't it. We will still take tea and a scone after the markets close.

What has not happened is new lows being confirmed, giving us an indication that we are wrong. The predicted turn today at the noon locus was precisely called for as the retail buyers became exhausted. Look at the volume measures during the morning against the afternoon session.

The next four months -

I have been preparing a follow on article to the January 9th article. This will be similarly titled as a Brief History of the next four months. This time I will cover many more markets than just equity indexes. We hope that it will be as accurate as the previous forecast. We will cover U.S. Treasuries, precious metals, crude oil and some Foreign currency cross rates, or currency pair trading.

All the while we will be working to bring you the new website.


Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns 7 - 04/03/2006

Market Timing - posted at 1558 EST

Swing trade - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.

Investor core - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.



Gaps will not be ignored for too long will they. No worries, whipsaws are the common traders nightmare but not mine. I see elephants in the room with that size of an exchange aided opening gap.

If it closes today, all the better isn't it.


At 1558, the downward structure appears nearly complete. Tomorrow may finish the gap closing movement.


More later this afternoon.

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns 6 - 04/03/2006

Market Timing - posted at 1545 EST

Swing trade - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.

Investor core - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.


Time loci for the 15 minute timeframe have ascended higher and faster for today. I do find a 5 minute locus at 1435 which aligns with a 15 minute locus at 1445 EST.
I expect the first to be a low and the second to be a high as the upward move continues today.



The structure and volume requires more time and more downward or lateral action in price at 1445 EST. We suspect it will be mostly downward. Remember - tops are formed during distribution of stock from the hands of smart money to the hands of less smart money.



Gaps will not be ignored for too long will they. No worries, whipsaws are the common traders nightmare but not mine. I see elephants in the room with that size of an exchange aided opening gap.

If it closes today, all the better isn't it.


This is for you!

Your appreciation for our work here is easily shown by looking at one of our sponsors. They appreciate your interest by looking through their site. When we find ourselves on a website that offers us interesting or useful information, we always check on a sponsor at that site. It is our way of saying thank you each time we use that site.

We are approaching about 50% of what we should need for supporting the backoffice costs and for funds to support our favored charities. Sharing this site with others via email would slowly add to our base and reduce time we would spend on marketing and advertising.


More after 1530 EST.

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns 5 - 04/03/2006

Market Timing - posted at 1445 EST

Swing trade - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.

Investor core - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.

Time loci for the 15 minute timeframe have ascended higher and faster for today. I do find a 5 minute locus at 1435 which aligns with a 15 minute locus at 1445 EST.
I expect the first to be a low and the second to be a high as the upward move continues today.



The structure and volume requires more time and more downward or lateral action in price at 1445 EST. We suspect it will be mostly downward. Remember - tops are formed during distribution of stock from the hands of smart money to the hands of less smart money.

This is for you!

Your appreciation for our work here is easily shown by looking at one of our sponsors. They appreciate your interest by looking through their site. When we find ourselves on a website that offers us interesting or useful information, we always check on a sponsor at that site. It is our way of saying thank you each time we use that site.

We are approaching about 50% of what we should need for supporting the backoffice costs and for funds to support our favored charities. Sharing this site with others via email would slowly add to our base and reduce time we would spend on marketing and advertising.


More after 1530 EST.

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns 4 - 04/03/2006

Market Timing - posted at 1415 EST

Swing trade - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.

Investor core - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.


The minor time locus point and a different algorithm are converging at 1215 EST.


Time loci for the 15 minute timeframe have ascended higher and faster for today. I do find a 5 minute locus at 1435 which aligns with a 15 minute locus at 1445 EST.
I expect the first to be a low and the second to be a high as the upward move continues today.

This is for you!

Your appreciation for our work here is easily shown by looking at one of our sponsors. They appreciate your interest by looking through their site. When we find ourselves on a website that offers us interesting or useful information, we always check on a sponsor at that site. It is our way of saying thank you each time we use that site.

We are approaching about 50% of what we should need for supporting the backoffice costs and for funds to support our favored charities. Sharing this site with others via email would slowly add to our base and reduce time we would spend on marketing and advertising.


More after 1530 EST.

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns 3 - 04/03/2006

Market Timing - posted at 1140 EST

Swing trade - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.

Investor core - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.

Now SPX 1305 to 1311 may slow the action a fair bit. I expect SPX to get over the lip today. Momentum and volume are in above normed levels. Volume patterns have continued to point to upward movement and so also this morning.

NDX is presenting at recent highs at 1720. The Dow is lagging out of the open, but it also was the last to put a low. It may transition to a follower over the next weeks.


The minor time locus point and a different algorithm are converging at 1215 EST.

More after the timing loci have passed.

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns - 04/03/2006

Market Timing - posted at 1040 EST

Swing trade - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.

Investor core - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.


We are opening with a gap upward. I think we go higher for the next few days. But SPX 1304 is still the first test.


Now SPX 1305 to 1311 may slow the action a fair bit. I expect SPX to get over the lip today. Momentum and volume are in above normed levels. Volume patterns have continued to point to upward movement and so also this morning.

NDX is presenting at recent highs at 1720. The Dow is lagging out of the open, but it also was the last to put a low. It may transition to a follower over the next weeks.


More within the hour.

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns - 04/3/2006

Market Timing - posted at 0940 EST

Swing trade - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.

Investor core - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.


From Friday -

"The minor time locus referenced above in bold arrives on Monday, April 3rd with the window opening at noon."


We are opening with a gap upward. I think we go higher for the next few days. But SPX 1304 is still the first test.

More within the hour.

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Trading Any Market And Rock Star Status

Trading Any Market And Rock Star Status

By W. B. Busin

Every industry, from Hollywood to Wall Street, has a succession “rock stars” pushed out to the public. In their own specific terms and methods, these “rock stars” rise upwards through various levels of name recognition. Their notoriety is often shaped by the publicists and public relations industry. The “industry rock stars” become known, then respected, then envied by their respective publics. The financial rewards are often extraordinary for these “rock stars”. It may take years for the rock star to reach a point of stability where they are allowed to speak and behave in an unscripted and normal way.

Current examples of industry rock stars are filling your minds, such as Tiger Woods in men’s professional golf, but possibly not names like Meg Whitman and Jack Welch in business, Carl Rove in government and politics, or Fernando Alonso. To their publics who have ‘discovered’ them, knowing how they got there is more for the satisfaction of their curiosity and not as a lesson for themselves.

That is, the real story is quickly discarded for the juice squeezed from the low hanging fruit of their current life, behavior and words. This is what I refer to as the “Now Funnel” of information, knowledge and understanding. Implied in the name is the pathological presence of a willful ignoring or trivializing of the history of each rock star’s marathon run toward achievement and the accompanying fame. Only the “Now” matters. The respective publics (fans) of rock stars want what they are. They say it as, wanting to be them, wanting to have what they have. And, they want it now, or, they want to be as close as they can be to that state of desired rock star status. The “Now Funnel” supplies seductive and available information continuously. Rock stars are in demand in countless ways: endorsements, interviews, photos, and autographs. They are expected to live up to each fan’s peculiar and nuanced expectations.

Trading in any competitive marketplace has similar deleterious characteristics. If a person is successful at investing or trading, they are compared to a Warren Buffet or another Market Wizard. When a “new” star emerges into the spotlight, people imperceptibly presume that they are owed a full accounting of their life story “Now!” The most interesting new stars are ones with long histories that people can relate to quite easily, aren’t they? They were waiters or convenience store clerks or an office worker. Observe the variety of jobs that the budding stars worked in before they ‘made it’ on TV’s American Idol.

So, I want you to look at a new star, a true “Rock Star” in an industry that is not a great American Tradition. I want you to follow what this very young man is doing to his industry. He exploded into the brightness last year. In 2005, he became the dominant factor, the guy to watch, and the man to beat. He won 7 races. I don’t want you to become a fan, though you might find a fair bit of reason to become a fan.

I want to use him and those involved in his success as an allegory for what is required to succeed in trading and investing. His name is Fernando Alonso. He is a Spaniard who drives a French Renault Formula 1 racecar. Look him up. Read about him. As I said in a previous post, he has it all. He has the looks, the innate bravado, the charisma. If it can be done in an F1 car, he can do it better, faster than anybody else.

This year he has won twice with a second place in just three races. Out of a possible championship 30 points, Alonso has 28.

The history part that is easily ignored is the better story for a trader. It is a story of a great car designer, of a brilliant crew of many, that provide him with the tool, the car, that Fernando uses to wreak havoc on his fellow drivers. It is a story of diligent imagination, creation, preparation and adaptation. Decades of auto science, design and trials have converged and produced a superior Renault racecar. After all the sweat and tears of years of work, they dropped this jewel of a racecar into the able hands of this formerly unfamous, unRock Star young driver.

In one season, he makes their work seem like the work of pure genius. He was the 2005 champion. He won seven races. He beat established stars. His name is gold. He is the Tiger Woods, the Warren Buffet of Formula 1 racing, and so very young at barely 25. He is a Rock Star, by any measure – even if you’ve never heard of him.

Find the lengthy paths preparation of the designer, the manufacturer, the crewmen, the details that converged to give Fernando the chance to become a Rock Star in his industry. Then watch him and his supporting cast as they destroy the competition. Listen to his fellow competitors talk about him the same way Tiger’s foes talk about him. “If Tiger doesn’t have a great day, then maybe I have a chance to …”

You may not want to be a Rock Star in trading or anything else. But, you can be whatever you want if you are willing to spend your timing investing in you. If you are willing to sacrifice the “Now” for the “Future Funnel” by learning, by educating yourself, by learning to suffer losses, by learning to win, by devising your plan of managing money, by reading and looking for nuggets instead of searching for the mother lode in the mine of trading.

Be careful of your weaknesses. Master them. Rely on your strengths. Channel those strengths. Devise your plan for yourself. Never let trading become a personal reflection of your real value as one of God’s creations.

You cannot trade and will not trade like anyone else. You must arrive at that convergence of concepts and ideas through your solitary experience. You must allow for time to provide you with experience and knowledge. You must resort to an obsession for learning and design. The more you learn about trading, the simpler learning about it becomes. You must decide to learn all things in your focus till the day you stop trading or investing. It will become a natural way to live and think. Then, it might just be possible for you to make a living at trading.

Profitable traders are as rare as good racecar drivers. Rich traders are as rare as Rock Star drivers. Both industries, racing and trading, have a high incidence of crashes. Many crashes have tragic long lasting results to the drivers and traders, and their families. All deaths are tragic in racing, as are the blowups in the trading and the investing world.

{This piece is dedicated to Paul Dana’s wife and family. He died going 200 miles per hour, on March 27, 2006. He was just beginning to live his second chance at the American Dream.}