Timing Market Turns 5 - 03/31/2006

Market Timing - posted at 1435 EST

Swing trade - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.

Investor core - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.

Holding long through the weekend. Four positions positive, NDX and SPX, with two Dow positions down 45 points just before the closing.


We will post here later in the evening or tomorrow.

Thank you for supporting our advertisers. We interpret that as a fair measure of your desire to keep this information open and without charge.

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns 4 - 03/31/2006

Market Timing - posted at 1435 EST

Swing trade - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.

Investor core - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.

The 15 minute time locus begins at 1120 EST is followed by a series of intraday clotted loci. This indicates to us a lateral chop until the final locus at 1330 EST.

Time loci for this morning: 1120,1125,1140,1210. More if these are supported by the volume patterns and price action.

The minor time locus referenced above in bold arrives on Monday, April 3rd with the window opening at noon.

More time loci - 1250,1330,1445.

The 1445 time locus to be a low, but not necessarily lower than SPX 1295. It may be the second phase retracement of the upward move from 1295. Two more locus present at 1540 and at the open on Monday.

More after the close.

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns 3 - 03/31/2006

Market Timing - posted at 1248 EST

Swing trade - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.

Investor core - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.

The 15 minute time locus begins at 1120 EST is followed by a series of intraday clotted loci. This indicates to us a lateral chop until the final locus at 1330 EST.

Time loci for this morning: 1120,1125,1140,1210. More if these are supported by the volume patterns and price action.

The minor time locus referenced above in bold arrives on Monday, April 3rd with the window opening at noon.

More time loci - 1250,1330,1445


Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns 2 - 03/31/2006

Market Timing - posted at 30 EST

Swing trade - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.

Investor core - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.

Thrup. Thrup. Thrup.

That is the sound of cards shuffled on a green felt table. It is the same sound heard around investment tables as the fund managers shuffle their funds' holdings at quarter's end. Today, we get to see their last minute ghosting trades. It wouldn't do to not own Google or other 'hot stocks' - even if they don't know where that stock is headed.

Today's action should be unusual just for that reason, but buying should be evident as we see in the pre-session. There is a minor time locus due soon. I'll discuss that later this morning.

The 15 minute time locus begins at 1120 EST is followed by a series of intraday clotted loci. This indicates to us a lateral chop until the final locus at 1330 EST.

Time loci for this morning: 1120,1125,1140,1210. More if these are supported by the volume patterns and price action.

The minor time locus referenced above in bold arrives on Monday, April 3rd with the window opening at noon.


More at before the open in the morning.

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns - 03/31/2006

Market Timing - posted at 0930 EST

Swing trade - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.

Investor core - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.


Thrup. Thrup. Thrup.

That is the sound of cards shuffled on a green felt table. It is the same sound heard around investment tables as the fund managers shuffle their funds' holdings at quarter's end. Today, we get to see their last minute ghosting trades. It wouldn't do to not own Google or other 'hot stocks' - even if they don't know where that stock is headed.

Today's action should be unusual just for that reason, but buying should be evident as we see in the pre-session. There is a minor time locus due soon. I'll discuss that later this morning.


More at before the open in the morning.

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns 7 - 03/30/2006

Market Timing - posted at 1730 EST

Swing trade - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.

Investor core - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.


When the expected low off 5 moves downward actually is a high, the probability of seeing lower lows is rare. We should move considerably higher into the close. To be sure of higher prices this afternoon, SPX 1304 must be overtaken.

Gaps at SPX 1296, 1295 and 1293.50 are still open. The most important is the SPX 1293.5 opening gap yesterday. The SPX may be poised to retrace to cover those gaps. Gaps are like a structural defect in a new auto. They don't go far without repairs.

Without exceeding SPX 1304 so far, tomorrow may not be a day for much progress either

Look at the Dow 30 and a different picture can be viewed. Only the Dow 30 has made a lower low today - so far.

If you haven't looked at these three indexes, use these free charts to see what might be occurring tomorrow. Here is the Dow 30 , the SPX and the NDX. Change the days and time to 5 or 10 days and the time to hourly.

If the differences between the three aren't evident to you then perhaps you may look for a slant or slope difference. I don't know which of the readers have live charts and those who don't. Change the symbol to QQQQ or SPY, etc to look at other equities.

The gaps are visible on the 5 minute and 15 minute timeframe.

More at before the open in the morning.

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns 6 - 03/30/2006

Market Timing - posted at 1535 EST

Swing trade - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.

Investor core - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.

When the expected low off 5 moves downward actually is a high, the probability of seeing lower lows is rare. We should move considerably higher into the close. To be sure of higher prices this afternoon, SPX 1304 must be overtaken.

Gaps at SPX 1296, 1295 and 1293.50 are still open. The most important is the SPX 1293.5 opening gap yesterday. The SPX may be poised to retrace to cover those gaps. Gaps are like a structural defect in a new auto. They don't go far without repairs.

Without exceeding SPX 1304 so far, tomorrow may not be a day for much progress either

Look at the Dow 30 and a different picture can be viewed. Only the Dow 30 has made a lower low today - so far.


More at 1730 EST.

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns 5 - 03/30/2006

Market Timing - posted at 1425 EST

Swing trade - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.

Investor core - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.

The high and a low arrived in the time window. Instead of a turning upward, we see the low turn at 1400 EST.

When the expected low off 5 moves downward actually is a high, the probability of seeing lower lows is rare. We should move considerably higher into the close. To be sure of higher prices this afternoon, SPX 1304 must be overtaken.

Don't forget to give the ad sponsors a look.


More at 1430 EST.

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns 4 - 03/30/2006

Market Timing - posted at 1325 EST

Swing trade - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.

Investor core - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.

We expect a turn at 1245 to 1300 EST (a low is projected at 60/40). Structurally, a low would persuade us to look for higher prices soon after the turn. Then lateral trading with a downward bias late in the session.

The high and a low arrived in the time window. Instead of a turning upward, we see the low turn at 1400 EST.


More at 1430 EST.

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns 3 - 03/30/2006

Market Timing - posted at 1225 EST

Swing trade - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.

Investor core - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.

Resistance hit. An 88% downward retracement of the morning's movement has closed a small gap at SPX 1303.60 - from here a bounce and then finish the correction structure, if needed.

We expect a turn at 1245 to 1300 EST (a low is projected at 60/40). Structurally, a low would persuade us to look for higher prices soon after the turn. Then lateral trading with a downward bias late in the session.

More at 1430 EST.

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns 2- 03/30/2006

Market Timing - posted at 1100 EST

Swing trade - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.

Investor core - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.

Resistance remains strong at SPX 1310 to 1315 as we stated here in previous weeks. It is actually multi layered. A breaking through of those levels early today would signal good underlying strength, even if it fell back and tested at or below those levels.

Resistance hit. An 88% downward retracement of the morning's movement has closed a small gap at SPX 1303.60 - from here a bounce and then finish the correction structure, if needed.

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns - 03/30/2006

Market Timing - posted at 0940 EST

Swing trade - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.

Investor core - 100% long positions; stop for all positions to SPX 1290.


Resistance remains strong at SPX 1310 to 1315 as we stated here in previous weeks. It is actually multi layered. A breaking through of those levels early today would signal good underlying strength, even if it fell back and tested at or below those levels.

More later, after the opening hour.

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns Update 3 - 03/29/2006

Market Timing - posted at 1620 EST

Swing trade - entered 100% long positions from today's open.

Investor core - entered 100% long positions from today's open.


We are raising our stop for all positions to SPX 1290.


Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns Update 2 - 03/29/2006

Market Timing - posted at 1350 EST

Swing trade - entered 100% long positions from today's open.

Investor core - entered 100% long positions from today's open.


The 1330 EST time locus is providing more evidence of a confirmed upward movement underway. Although we have earlier discussed the potential for the SPX to move toward the 1400 level, time may expire on this upward movement for that to be achieved. It will remain a possibility in the lowest range of percentages.

Unfortunately, the open this morning began with a small gap in the SPX and the OEX. I suppose that many noticed that and it deserves consideration for closure.

Risk for these positions will be greatly reduced as SPX 1310 is surpassed. Until then, this remains a high risk trade, and must be monitored.

We expect an intraday pullback toward SPX 1296 within an hour from this posting.

We will post an update after the close (by 1700 EST), if not sooner.

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns Update - 03/29/2006

Market Timing - posted at 1145 EST

Swing trade - entered 100% long positions from today's open.

Investor core - entered 100% long positions from today's open.


A strong upward move into this intraday timing locus is partially confirming the move toward SPX 1340. The gap is closing and will possibly continue upward or possibly react downward as a 5th phase from the last SPX 1310 high.

This particular structural pattern appears to be more understandable, and the low on March 10th is more likely now to be seen as the end of the corrective movement off the February 27th high. That is the time locus, due on March 13th, that we tripped on.

I await the 1330 EST time locus for further support to this scenario.

More at that time.

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns - 03/29/2006

Market Timing - posted at 0550 EST

Swing trade - entering 100% long positions from today's open.

Investor core - entering 100% long positions from today's open.
Our data issue has been cured. We have ignored the currencies this evening to get this problem solved, and then run the numbers. Sometimes I see all this as trying to herd rattlesnakes in a dust storm.

We will enter 100% long in Swing and Investor core positions, at the open today, Wednesday, the 29th. Our stop will be set at SPX 1287, MIT.


IF - THENS

If we are right about the 28th being a low locus timing point, the indexes may swish back and forth for a day or two before beginning a run upward toward SPX 1340. We may have caught the momentum low this time.

If an upward move begins from shortly after the open, as I expect, we would look for some minor intrady turn loci for some help to confirm that the downward correction still had more swishing to go about completing. We are looking at the 15 minute bars at 1145 EST and 1330 EST as two loci for signals. We will pop in here, of course, for some opinions.

If price breaks through support levels at or below our stop, we will see SPX 1270 quickly. Bob's your uncle! I'll venture a 10% chance of that occuring before topping SPX 1310 again.

More just prior to the open if it warrants.



Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns Update 3 - 03/28/2006

Market Timing - posted at 1545 EST

Swing trade - 100% cash position from today's open.

Investor core - 100% cash position from today's open.

We will remain in cash at the close. We will update later this afternoon after we run the data. We must check some data on one of the indexes to make certain that it is correct.

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns Update 3 - 03/28/2006

Market Timing - posted at 1518 EST

Swing trade - 100% cash position from today's open.

Investor core - 100% cash position from today's open.


Almost anything the happens with the indexes, between now and the close, will trigger many buy signals on charts. That is the purpose for waiting till the volume and structure return to equilibrium.

Ten points downward on the SPX, 100 points for the Dow Industrials, and 20 points on the Nasdaq 100 seems impressive till a view of a daily or hourly chart.

Remember that being in cash is a trading decision, just like being long or short an index or stock. Overtrading is only defined by the trader or investor and their own risk management system in place BEFORE a trade is executed.

We may miss a few swings or a few bold trades, but foremost in our trading mind is the current environment - a top formation. This is not the everlasting upward trend of 2003 through 2005.

So, stay patient while the indexes work through their own individual phases.

I will update briefly at 1545 EST for any trading changes.



Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns Update 2 - 03/28/2006

Market Timing - posted at 1400 EST

Swing trade - 100% cash position from today's open.

Investor core - 100% cash position from today's open.


The time locus change has not settled yet. When it is resolved, I believe the movement will be rather quick. Reviewing the last two loci points March 13th and March 20th, the formations and the price/volume structures were not ideal as most time loci are.

The March 27/28th time locus is not any easier either thus far. But we should see some clear path between now and after the first hour of trading tomorrow. Yes, it can take that long for all the crosscurrents to subside.

I will update again at 1500 EST.

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns Update - 03/28/2006

Market Timing - posted at 0900 EST

Swing trade - exiting the short position at the open.

Investor core - exiting the short position at the open.


We will update here before the afternoon session and again at 1500 EST.

This may be a good day for random walk in a park. :)


Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns Update - 03/28/2006

Market Timing - posted at 0633 EST

Swing trade - still 100% short. Stop at SPX 1310, MIT.

Investor core - still 100% short. Stop at SPX 1310, MIT.
{MIT is market if touched, or immediate closing of position}

Yesterday at the close, we wrote:

We are holding short into tomorrow. This becomes a high risk trade for us. Others may want to exit at the close.

Before the open, we will decide whether to exit on the open. We will post an update prior to that as we observe the futures closing the over night session and the pre-session begins.

It is likely we will close the Investor core positions in the indexes. This is just a way to avoid getting stopped out by potential upward spike at announcement time.

Similar thoughts are appropriate for the Swing trades. It is easier to reverse positions in a smaller trading position than it is to wxit a larger investment position.

Several time locus points are arising to significance. These timing loci are centering at week's end and early next week.



Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns Update - 03/27/2006

Market Timing - posted at 1550 EST

Swing trade - still 100% short. Stop at SPX 1310, MIT.

Investor core - still 100% short. Stop at SPX 1310, MIT.
{MIT is market if touched, or immediate closing of position}

We are holding short into tomorrow. This becomes a high risk trade for us. Others may want to exit at the close.

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns - 03/27/2006

Market Timing - posted at 0405 EST

Swing trade - still 100% short. Stop at SPX 1310, MIT.

Investor core - still 100% short. Stop at SPX 1310, MIT.
{MIT is market if touched, or immediate closing of position}


When lateral movement is the forward result from a time locus, we tend to take time off from trading. It seems like that would have been a fine path to wander down in view of the past week's trading action. On several indexes a near perfect horizontal channel was formed. Volume patterns had to be examined with a jeweler's eye piece. Accepting the upward and downward spikes on the 20th, on the Dow, I see an ascending/expanding triangle ending with the spike, as a new descending triangle began with the spikes. Tomorrow should take the market into the apex. Descending triangles frequently break upward, but not always.

So how comfortable are we now with being short into Monday's open on the SPX? Not much different. We are pleased to see that we have the large commercial traders in our tent. They have moved over the past weeks, and continue to move, toward very large net short positions from modestly net long positions. This also good news when compared to the non-commercial traders who are still net long the indexes.

We expect to possibly exit this trade at the close on Monday. If the SPX trades at 1310 before the close, we will exit then. Some might want to lower the stop toward SPX 1307.50.

Structurally, we see the intra-day action needing another downward move at least.

Rumours, bonds and FOMC -

We are rarely found to be in a trade or trading during FOMC announcement day. Re-entering after the standard whipsaws is a much safer, unstressed, lower risk to capital opportunity to trade.

I suspect the FOMC will raise the Fed fund rate again and risk sending the economy into a recession. Of course, that would include a significant downward move in the broad indexes over the next 9 to 12 months. I published an article in early January concerning a declining stock market for 2006 after April. ( New readers can Google the title, A Brief History of the U.S. Stock Markets Through April 2006 ) The article is also buried near the end of this digest of posts, http://timing-market-turns.blogspot.com/2006_01_15_timing-market-turns_archive.html .

Chairman Bernanke will be vilified if the recession begins in the next few months. Justifiably.

Bonds should begin a strong move upward as market rates decline if the FOMC insinuates that this rate increase MIGHT be the last one for a time (that is the rumour). The $US should receive a thorough cleansing in this process.

I look forward to trading a choppy downward market over the next months, filled with lucrative swings. I won't enjoy the pain inflicted on those least aware of its imminent start, nor that of the people who will soon find themselves laid off as a result of excesses in the economy.

Corrections in an economy, in a stock market and in a person's life or career are not expected by most, but have been a reality since time began (no, I wasn't there when time began). :) The prudent prepare for it in the way they prepare for prosperous times. They plan. They are frugal. They share with anyone in need, for they know the need could be theirs in the future.

In Need -

That is why we will share the proceeds from this blog, and, from the website too, with those in need. Just a word of clarity, 'proceeds' means to us: revenues minus costs equals 'proceeds'. So when you take a look at one of the sponsors in the block of blue links above, it generates a small amount of revenue. Remember the famous vitamins, One-A-Day? :)

We thank you and are encouraged by your faithfulness. It tells me/us that you want us to continue to share our thoughts, opinions and timing loci for free.

We have received hundreds of emails, many spams. We have stopped responding to all but, we have kept our promise to alert several people when we update this blog. They encouraged us to continue our efforts last fall and shared their thoughts with us. We will not add to that list. When the website is live, all may subscribe to the email alert service through the form on the home page.

Some people have been rude and intruding into our lives. If you want send us a message, then comment here or at Elite Trader, please. We may get time some day to respond. If we don't respond, it is for lack of availability of time and other priorities.

We have families, responsibilities and duties - all unrelated to this tiny adventure in blogging about markets. Personally, we take most of our trades in the Forex market. So, the data and chart analysis here is added time away from what we might be doing, isn't it?

Some of you have read this type of message before, and have honored it. The above is for new readers. As I said somewhere before, we aren't posting this information so we can make hundreds on new friends. :) Thank you for honoring our privacy and for allowing us to share our work with you. Still, your comments are always welcome. Why don't you share this blog with friends, family and other traders?

We have also posted an update alert notice (as soon as possible) at this site: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/forumdisplay.php?s=5d15efdd92d0a3affc67a72d1c5cd682&forumid=29 Look for the journal by the same name, Timing Market Turns. Click on the small triangle to go to the last page (no registration required to read posts).


Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin