Timing Market Turns 2 - 04/13/2006

Market Timing for Daily and Intraday Trading Options, Futures and ETF's on SPX, NDX, and DJIA.

Swing trade - 100% cash positions. Short trade closed on Wednesday's close.

Investor core - 100% cash positions. Possible trade by Friday's close.


Sometimes the markets behave the way a trader expects. I have learned that as soon as that happens, I should expect that to stop abruptly. We didn't have anything change in our view of the indexes today, so I thought that I would post 4 more comments and respond to them in bold below the post. No names used, of course.

"Hello Mr. Busin,Excuse my ignorance, but when you ...

Excuse my ignorance, but when you state " Short trade closed on Wednesday's close." Do you mean right before the market close for the day or after the market close for the day? "

Yes. At the close.

"Hi WBI have no problem with $5 a day for first rat... Hi WB
I have no problem with $5 a day for first rate timing service. And more as a longer track record is established.

I hope, that for that price, you'll be able to provide intraday signals and not the clumsy (or should I say "less agile") end-of-day beginning-of-day Timertrac friendly signals."

If we do go to fee-based, you will have more data and information than you could use. :) We would also cover more than just the 3 indexes. We would poll readers for desired instruments and decide what to track from the information.

"Great call for closing out yesterday on the close.... Great call for closing out yesterday on the close.

Do you have your trade history posted anywhere farther back than what is posted on Timer Trac?

Thanks"

The TimerTrac trade record is all that is publicly available. If any non-TimerTrac members would like to see the exact record with times and dates, give us a comment here and I will post it after trading hours sometime next week.

Thank you all for the expressed gratitude. All of us here hope it has helped someone, so that we may reach others who need our help.

Hi Bill

First, I must thank you again for what has been an interesting and profitable experience. I enjoy both the commentary and the way you approach trading.

I support the idea of a fee-based service. It sounds from the tenor of your post that people may be objecting to some of the costs. However, as a veteran of many "so-called" trading services, one thing I think that people must understand is that we will pay not only for your systems, but also for your judgement. I have yet to find any "mechanical" system that remains robust over time. It needs a human with experience to help analyze the data. It takes much more time and effort for you to trigger a trade than for a mindless system.

My only advice would be not to be a slave to Timertrac. If the trade needs to be closed (or opened) now, why not just do it? You could always post something like: "closing trade now, otherwise hold until close and execute at our normal timertrac endpoint" that would allow people who want to use the verified system to use it that way, and the rest of us, who can take a peek from time to time, to close at the time that appears optimal. For what it's worth.

Thank you again!

NOTE: Someone who reads this blog is taking this information and re-selling it. That is wrong. Do not do that. First you will hurt others, and second you will be cut off from this information. I know who it is. Yes, I do. All will be forgiven if you take down the systems off that page. And, don't try that anymore.

I have a long standing friendship and relationship with Tiger International. They can count the the number of nits on a rat's back while it's crawling into its nest. Do not doubt that I will quickly find plagairizers and exact a cost much more dramatic than the few quid you will make.

Stop the systems you are selling. Send me an apology by Sunday night. If you do, all is forgiven and we will carry on as before.

Good Trading and God bless you all.

Happy Easter! He is risen.

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns 04/13/2006

Market Timing for Daily and Intraday Trading Options, Futures and ETF's on SPX, NDX, and DJIA.

Swing trade - 100% cash positions. Short trade closed on Wednesday's close.

Investor core - 100% cash positions. Possible trade by Friday's close.


The day before a market holiday can be dangerous as the pit traders sneak off. The trading gets thinner and thinner doesn't it. Prices can be moved by fewer and fewer traders. By 1300 EST, commodities, rates, FX will close. Regular hours for the index futures.


We'll post if anything notable arises before the open.


Good Trading and God bless you

Have a wonderful Easter! He is risen!

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns 04/12/2006

Market Timing for Daily and Intraday Trading Options, Futures and ETF's on SPX, NDX, and DJIA.

Swing trade - 100% cash positions. Short trade closed on today's close.

Investor core - 100% cash positions. Possible trade by Friday's close.


Issues and comments:

1. Fee based structure - Assume this is true. Price of a service is inversely proportional to quantity of units sold in a competitive market. If so, what determines net profit per unit? If you don't know, then you won't understand why a $40 to $60 per month service is a loss leader in ideal circumstances. I will retrun to this later. Think scales of magnitude of unit sold.

2. The time locus of April 11th - it was a high. It was early and very bearish for the nearby trading and for the long term (months and months). It was a major locus point and has my deepest respect. More on this subject later in the month.

3. Mutual funds - you must choose the funds. You must make your own decisions about any vehicle you will invest in or trade.

4. The short publicly available, trade for trade, record of the System - It is your choice to buy products and services that you want or need. Why people buy or don't buy is my field of expertise. You will ignore your needs to buy what you want. If you want to pay $50 for a service that you expect to make you thousands, don't look here. Anyone who pays that for a trading or investing service has either no respect for the information of the service or no self respect. In brutal terms, if you NEED a service, it is because you haven't or can't or won't invest in the years of learning. You want a Rolls Royce and its luxury for the price of a Kia. That trait is common among traders who are undercapitalized and consistently lose more than they profit in their trading. The cure for that problem is usually, learn how to manage money and risk. Learning that and having a genuine trading plan will turn around a bad trader before they lose all their capital.

5. What would a subscriber get for the fee? I have not wanted to think about that. I don't want to go to fee based service. Two reasons - 1. Too much time doing back office, customer service with people who don't know the basics of trading, technical analysis, want a personal relationship with their 'market hero of the week', and so on.

A quick idea of what would be in the service: the real time live trading signals of an index, no money back guarantee, no generalities as read daily in the Journal, only useful opinion that may be wrong or right, completely different than the signals now for TimerTrac (even though I would still input my signals there with a 30 day delay instead of 3), charts of the markets and what to focus on. More actually useful things than you would expect for the fee. You might not be ready for the quantity and quality. Over delivery is a basic tenet of top priced services. Does any experienced trader (15 to 20 years) buy a $50 service? The best investor services range from $500 to $2500 per month. Now look back at #1 and the question, what determines profit per untit. Yes, it's costs, but what costs kill profits the more units that are sold?

Rob, am I rambling? :)

6. Posting trades for people who can't be infront of the computer at 0930 or 1600 EST - It is difficult to trade the Timertrac restrictions. I may know for hours or even days when an intraday turn is coming. Most of the time, it is what I have thought it would be, such as a low or a high turn. When it is not what I thought it would be, it has dramatic implications on whether or not to trade - on what to trade and how many units, for how long, and on and on. Those instances are usually marvelous opportunities to immediately take advantage of the changed environment.

That is why the presession is so important and to a lesser extent, the action overnight and through the European trading of U.S. index futures and stocks.

7. The nature of the signals - signals can come at any time during the 24 hour period. Many times overseas events trigger market ripples here in the U.S. and vice versa. Stop loss orders must be used. Money management cannot be effective without them. Most traders don't use them, even though they say they do. Would you walk a circus high wire without a huge safety net beneath you? No? Then learn to use stops and how and where to place them for your own personal comfort.

Signals given here in these blogs will be Timertrac driven. We will be churning sea foam in the Swing trades. Depending on how the indexes behave through May, the Investor core may not trade much at all.

That's quite enough for this evening. Send any follow on comments through, or any new thoughts.


I will get through each and post by midnight. But first supper. It will be late in the east and I want to explain what and why we did today because three people asked.

Here is what we said that is possibly not clear to some traders:

@1525 - We expect the SPX to sell off into midday tomorrow downward towards our stated target of SPX 1275. The turn from that locus point may be quite strong. Since no significant upward move has occurred today, we will close all Swing positions at the close.

The question is 'why didn't we hold the position into tomorrow?' because we expect the sell off to continue.
1. we had good profits in the NDX and SPX, and very little profit in the Dow. Again, the important restriction we have is that we may only enter or exit the trades at the open or close. We stopped posting our own trades late last year because of that restriction.
2. quite often the selloff is a failure in price, that is, price does not get close to the target.
3. if we held the position "into midday" and the index turned and moved quickly upward, this could have wiped out our profits and left us with a loss at the close. This is a very common mistake by many traders.
4. The Dow was up through most of the day wasn't it.
5. The upward move I expect for tomorrow should try to get back above the broken short term trend line that was broken. This is known as a countertrend movement - even though a legitimate trend has not been established.
6. I expected a stronger and faster move downward when the trend line broke. It did not. Volume patterns and sentiment moved toward bullish buying, a bad sign.
7. If SPX had moved up more during the day, we might have seen the downward move in toward the close. We didn't and in my view, we either see that move up in the morning or after price slides into the afternoon. I did not want to be trapped by either set of conditions.


There are more reasons to discuss but I'm hungry. :)

I will post responses to the comments I have completed by midnight EST. The rest I will finish by the European open.

WBB

Timing Market Turns 04/12/2006

Market Timing for Daily and Intraday Trading Options, Futures and ETF's on SPX, NDX, and DJIA.

Swing trade - 100% short positions. Stop is set at SPX 1303.

Investor core - 100% cash positions. Possible trade by Thursday's close.


@1525 - We expect the SPX to sell off into midday tomorrow downward towards our stated target of SPX 1275. The turn from that locus point may be quite strong. Since no significant upward move has occurred today, we will close all Swing positions at the close. We will have this environment for many weeks to come - upward for 1 to 3 days, then downward for 2 to 5 days.

Keep the comments coming please. They have been excellent. Nobody, including me, can see any of your information, such as email address, when you 'sign up' to be able to comment. If I want to respond to a comment, I first must publish it and then sign in to Blogger to enter my comment. It is that secure. That is the reason I respond in general form on the blog.

I will address the varying opinions and suggestions this evening or tomorrow. We continue to suffer an outpouring of saturating rains.

@1330 - will do wrapup after the close. Expect any upward move to be completed by the close.



@1100 - lateral to upward drift should keep market struggling till 1300 EST. Update after 1300 EST, or sooner if necessary.

We are considering a different form or model for raising revenues for ourp stated purposes. A subscription model seems the most likely type if this adverising is not yielding enough. $5 to $8 per day is reasonable isn't it. It is probably not what
the going market for newsletters or other advisories charge.


@1000 EST - gap at SPX 1292.50 will be the first target for the morning session

I will add these to the respective blogs later on.

SPX - Target 1275-8; stop 1303
NDX - Target 1650-56; stop 1770
DJIA - Target 10875, maybe 10830; stop 11300

I will update after 1000 EST

Good Trading and God bless you.

Timing Market Turns - 04/11/2006

Market Timing for Daily and Intraday Trading Options, Futures and ETF's on SPX, NDX, and DJIA.

Swing trade - 100% short positions. Stop is set at SPX 1320 for today's action only.

Investor core - 100% cash positions. Possible trade today at the close.


Please refresh the browser.


We are entered short in the Swing position at the open, in all indexes.





This is the last of the marquee posts. It is counterproductive. We don't like working against ourselves do we.

I will put some charts on the specific index blogs this afternoon. They won't be what you are expecting. But I believe you may find them interesting.

Please read below here.


WHY DO THIS BLOGGING ABOUT MARKETS?

When we started blogging, we did it because we were getting so much email from traders who subscribed to TimerTrac. We had people calling us and demanding answers. We didn't appreciate those days at all.

Most readers here have been quite kind and responsive. We have not posted most of your comments and questions, but have tried to answer them in the text here. Most of you have responded or recognized them as yours. Interestingly, most questions or comments that we respond to are from several people.

After decades of professional involvement in the business world, I can recognize a good business model from an aspiring model with potential, from a model cast in future failure.

I have seen marvelous products and services disappear from their markets because they had the wrong business model and were unwilling to adapt. We always adapt and we will always try out or test techniques that have potential.

Blogging and RSS may be touted as the next big necessary product/service that all businesses should have, but that might be more fallacy then genuine. Blogging for commercial purposes must have an end - a profitable end.

In my view, most stock market related blogs are manifesting conceited egos that want kudos from readers for information that one can find in a news service. We are not interested in affirmation of our methods of trading or the unique tools we use for trading. We are surprised, although we should not be, by the bloggers and newsletter writers who still think we are in a buy and hold investment world. The last possible buy and hold strategy that works approximately 50% of the time is your personal real estate, that is, owning your home.

Re-learning the same lesson every 20 years is the choice made by foolish men and women. Current earnest believers and holders of gold, bonds and Hummers will be shaking their heads wondering who they can blame for their foolish choices.

In the coming two years of pain, most traders and investors will suffer terribly, both financially and psychologically. You will see it in their behavior, attitudes and their disbelief that markets don't obey their wishes. These weeks and years will seem to others around you like decades of torment to those who haven't learned any lessons from their past.

When they grieving and battered investors and traders have had their breaking point tested so many times, then the blizzard will come and snow them under. They will break, sell all their financial assets and give up.

Why am I writing about this scenario? So you can see it coming, so you can see it arrive and settle over people's lives. So you can avoid it. So you can avoid their effects on you.

I am not predicting an economic depression in the U.S. I am predicting a psychological recession, a relentless grinding down of asset values and then at the end of that process, a stock market that seems to crash. Seemingly crashing and dashing hopes and dreams for those who forgot the lessons taught from 2000 to 2003.

At those psychological, economic and market lows, I will be there as the most aggressive bull you have ever seen or heard of won't I. Why? Because I learned these lessons about myself years ago, and had to learn a few more than once. Also, because I know when the lows will be for the psyche, the economy and for the markets (plus or minus a day or so for the markets.)

If you think I am crazy then you didn't read my article from January 9th that is spreading around the internet. Search for it. It is titled, "A Brief History of 2006". Maybe when we pass the first SPX target of 1220 in the near future, you will see that markets can be timed because people's behavior can be predicted. People are the markets. Markets are people. People dislike change. Changes never change people. People fight to remain themselves, or what they believe they are. People are what they think, what they do and what they love. Why do you think there are so many unGodly people fighting to keep their worldly wants justified?

People are almost too predictable. Traders and investors are predictable (they are people despite the rumours).

Are you predictable?

The markets give us all of the confirmation we could ever wish for in life. We hope the markets give you some confirmations too.

WBB




From the scroller today:

We view SPX 1320 as strong resistance
and 1325 as ultimate potential for an adverse movement.


SPX 1320 is our stop for today.

The stop is set much higher than might be expected at SPX 1320.


The reason is because of our view, as we stated yesterday,

that a quick bursting upward move may actually surpass SPX 1314

during the afternoon session.


The problem with an entry and exit limitation at opens and closes

only for the TimerTrac is protecting the position at a minor or major turn.


If I am sure of a turn and its direction, the generous stop
will help keep the trade alive in the unexpected track of the index,
on the day of the entry.
We are entered short in the Swing position at the open in all indexes.

This a HIGH risk trade.

We will wait for the set up to improve to enter with the Investor core positions.

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns Wrapup- 04/10/2006

@2310 EST - Ileft out the lower barrier level for feeling assured that this multi year upward move is quite finished. It is based on structure and price projections. It is SPX 1220-1225. We may see it quite soon.

Market Timing Intraday

Swing trade - SPX 1298 stop hit - 100% cash positions.

Investor core - SPX 1298 stop hit - 100% cash positions.

POSTED AT 2203 EST

The comments of readers are accepted and appreciated. They are about speed and size of each post. Another asked about the status of current positions. The last one was probably during the hours we had not the typical title,date etc. The current positions will always be on the respective pages. We were trying to fix the scroll at the tiem we had no title, etc.

We prefer the scroller that rises upward for readability. It might be as good as we can do for now. For some reason the blue scrollers were supposed rise upwards but don't. The bottom one does. So we will go with that one for the next few days. Please feel free to comment on speed or font size etc.

To the markets - For the next few days, the markets will show the direction of the next significant move. As you know, we believe it to be downward. There is a chance that we are in the second phase of the beginning structure of the decline. That would allow for one more upward move. This upward move could be a swift blowoff or just a retrace upward.

ADDED:
We prefer a general scenario of new lows in the morning session and a strong upward movement that may finish by the close. This is an ideal picture which rarely is granted to mortals.

The low percentage scenario is that of a blowoff upward movemnt that makes new highs in the SPX but unlikely for the DOW. Since the NDX has been making new highs during previous days and weeks, we see this movement nearing completion in structure.

A warning to us and to others is to not try to beat the market's punch, that is, let the market commit to a direction before jumping on the train. We are mindful of that anything can happen. What is expected by many is likely temporary, if at all.

The market has risen for just over three and a half years hasnt it. It has been powerful at times and weak at other times. In all the months and weeks, it has not been weak enough to collapse. It may be primed for a fearful drop to extinguish the hopes and dreams of bullish investors and traders.

It does that by dropping so rapidly and so far that many will try to bottom pick when they see a buy signal that does not go upward enough to cover commissions. They are trapped. It happens at bottoms too as an upward move begins. In a decline like this, the more intraday buy signals that abort, the market is whispering "I have farther to go before I sleep." We may take a signal before the open or wait till a price level is broken and structure reveals its intent. In many ways, this structure is as complex as I have seen.

The 2000 high mark was also quite complicated. I am reminded of it by the coincidental nearby timing of the DOW high point in January 2000 and the March 2000 high for the SPX. If you can, look at the weekly charts of both those highs. Both had quite large swings from week to week didnt they.

We will let the market point us and then we will move to enter with as low a risk as we can.

More in the morning. We will attempt to have a better looking scroller tomorrow and in the days to come.

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns - 04/10/2006

Market Timing Intraday

Swing trade - SPX 1298 stop hit - 100% cash positions.

Investor core - SPX 1298 stop hit - 100% cash positions.

Please refresh your browser to update the scrolling marquee.

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Wrap up and tomorrow's strategy by 2200 EST - - Thanks for your support and comments today. We will also reply to the comments about the scroll. It is a change that is necessary, but not yet in its final form. Pop back in at 2200 tonight. :) TOO FAST??

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CURRENT POSITIONS - Swing trade - SPX 1298 stop hit - 100% cash positions.
Investor core - SPX 1298 stop hit - 100% cash positions.

CURRENT POSITIONS -
Swing trade -100% cash positions. SPX 1298 stop hit -
Investor core - 100% cash positions. SPX 1298 stop hit -

Through the day we will move from the scroll, the text that is no longer necessary and paste down below exactly as it was in the scroll.

Items removed from scroll today:


@1545]We will stay in cash at the close today. No new trade in the Swing or Investor @1525] Unless price moves upward toward the SPX 1308-1312 level, we will take no action. Even if that occurs, structure will likely be incomplete. @1500] Intraday buy signals are still lacking volume but may change soon - - @1440]Resistance at SPX 1302-3, then 1306-08 - -
@1235]TLP5 - 1315,1340-45,1430-35,1510 upwards toward the 1510 - might see some price strength if the volume increases. We are preparing to sell these indexes with a stable structure at or near completion at the close today.

We will update here before the Monday open. The time of a post will be indicated and separated from comments and locus turn times by a bracket like this: 1425] TLP5 - 1450,1520,1540. Meaning, the time of the update was at 1435 EST for Time Locus Points for 5 minute bars (TLP15= 15 minute bars) which begin at the stated time, ex. 1450 EST. God bless. WBB
It seems Blogger's antispam blogging barrier is preventing us from easily using the other three blog just yet. We will be patient as we watch the indexes attempt an upward bias. We will post here till the Blogger issue resolves.

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns - 04/09/2006

Market Timing - posted at 1850 EST


Swing trade - SPX 1298 stop hit - 100% cash positions.

Investor core - SPX 1298 stop hit - 100% cash positions.

We would like to see a downward or level opening. That condition would likely lead to an upward bias to the entire day on Monday. If there is a higher close on Monday near SPX 1314, we will consider entering short at the close. If the close is above SPX 1320, we wait for the action and structure on Tuesday to give us a better signal.

A lower close on Monday will also keep us in cash since we do expect the indexes to make an attempt to move upwards.

Index funds that take a contrary or bearish position on the indexes may be appropriate for individuals who don't want to carry the liability of leverage in futures, options or the margin risk of shorting stocks.

The coming weeks will be quite extraordinary in view of these many weeks of topping.


We will update during the pre-session tomorrow morning.


Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin