Timing Market Turns Update 3– 03/24/2006

Market Timing - posted at 1552 EST

Swing trade - still 100% short. Stop at SPX 1310, MIT.

Investor core - still 100% short. Stop at SPX 1310, MIT.
{MIT is market if touched, or immediate closing of position}


We will hold 100% short over the weekend. We are not comfortable with this position. Four days of lateral movement is not a good way to start a trade.

So we will undergo another directionless day on Monday to see if a bias shows itself.

We will post some thoughts this weekend.

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns Update 2– 03/24/2006

Market Timing - posted at 1452 EST

Swing trade - still 100% short. Stop at SPX 1310, MIT.

Investor core - still 100% short. Stop at SPX 1310, MIT.
{MIT is market if touched, or immediate closing of position}

The indexes are in a minor buy mode from the steep downward move from the morning session high. Bonds and Notes closed near their highs. So far, today remains a bit foggy - no clarity.

We will decide near the close whether to hold over the weekend and into the FOMC meeting. We will update at 1545 EST

WBB

Timing Market Turns Update– 03/24/2006

Market Timing - posted at 1205 EST

Swing trade - still 100% short. Stop at SPX 1310, MIT.

Investor core - still 100% short. Stop at SPX 1310, MIT.
{MIT is market if touched, or immediate closing of position}

The bonds have made an upward move as mentioned. And so did the indexes, unlike our thoughts for a downward reaction.

Today's upward move does not look complete yet. The afternoon session should offer an indication of whether this trade is wrong or still has downside potential.

We will update here at 1430 EST

Good trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns – 03/24/2006

Market Timing - posted at 0400 EST

Swing trade - still 100% short, as of the open on Monday, March 20th.

Investor core - The core position is now 100% short. Stop at SPX 1310, MIT.

Today, Friday the 24th is a time locus for the 30 year U.S. Bond. Interest rates for the bond are known as the TYX symbol. They move inversely to bonds. The currencies have already signaled a change is possible, and they are linked in various ways to domestic and international interest rates.

A downward move in rates would result in an upward move in bonds. Recently, rates can be seen moving in similar direction as the stock indexes. This is not always true. Whether rumor or not, some people are speculating that the Federal Open Market Committee will not raise the Fed Funds rate on Tuesday next week. Others are speculating that Fed Funds will rise 25 basis points, BUT that this would be the last one for some unknown time. That could be perceived as not really raising at all. Market traded financial instruments (bonds, notes) would likely have a strong and immediate upward move.

Follow me on this - market traded rates go downward, then, possibly the market indexes follow on their downward track that we want in this trade - all caveats apply.

All the above is a reason why I suggest watching the bond and note futures prices this morning to look for an effect in the morning session of the indexes.

To sum, bonds have a time locus and a technical buy signal in the oven, and, interest rates and some cross currency rates show definite signs of lows against the US$. Result - this short trade has a good environment for beginning to move to more profitable levels - downward in the indexes, that is.

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns – 03/22/2006

Market Timing - posted at 1525 EST

Swing trade - still 100% short, as of the open on Monday, March 20th.

Investor core - still in 100% cash

Edit @ 1745 - The core position is now 100% short. Stop at SPX 1310.

We will enter 100% short in the Core investment at the close today in the TT. We expect to see SPX 1270 and lower before the next upward swing. Yes, this is not a normal use of investment class funds. We will protect them with tight stop levels, as this is a somewhat risky use of those funds.

We will update within 2 hours, after the close, if necessary.

Yesterday, we discussed the gap at SPX 1306. It has vanished! They are being cheeky with charts, aren't they? Now there are gaps at 1304 (covered today) and 1308. Whether we see the index at 1308 this week is unknown, but possible.

We have not changed our targets for support of 1280, 1270 and 1245-50 for the SPX.

Answer to reader - Our signals fro the SPX, Dow and NDX are taken from the SPX series of signals. For our ease, we trade all three signals as one at TT. So if we do enter short in the core investment position, all three will be 100% short.

In the near future on the website, we will separate the signals and add a day trading signal to the stew. TimerTrac does not track day trading, or what I would describe as intraday round trip trades. So we will have to track those in a database on the website. It will be more work for us.

As to the website, I should write a book! :) But it would bore you with legal and technical rubbish. I would title it, "Pain!" It will be up soon. I won't let it be the typical standard web issue type of site. If it isn't secure and still easy to use, it won't be on our website!

The home page may surprise most readers here. Keep coming around here for updates.

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns Update 2 – 03/21/2006

Market Timing - posted at 1750 EST

Swing trade - still 100% short, as of the open on Monday, March 20th.

Investor core - still in 100% cash

We just wrote:

Expecting a upward bounce after a decline to SPX 1298 would be normal. The double gap just above SPX 1306 is visible on the 5 minute chats. That level might become resistance.

I might believe the markets heard that comment and decided to show me who is the boss when it involves what the market is going to do. :)

Don't forget about that gap. It might become a target level intraday tomorrow morning.

As I promised, I would try to deduce what the rationale for shorting on March 13th.
I was definitely fooled by the formation. From an Elliott perspective, there are at least 5 reasonable "counts" from March 8th through March 13th. They might involve a 5th failure that failed so horribly that it looked like a corrective upward leg. Any structural conclusion leads me to the result that the market ended its downward correction, either late on March 10th or at the intraday low on March 13th. I favor a fair bit, the ending on March 10th as seen through my rear view mirror.

What did I learn? I knew the market was still in an overall bullish phase, and still is. I relearned to not underestimate how the market can shape a reversal in its own unique way. Recall the October bottom in 2005, it also showed the same creative tendency when a reversal is due. We had stated that the turn was coming either on October 21st or October 24th. When we executed the trades, we had a much better structural view since the downward preceding move was much greater and longer in time. We felt very comfortable stepping onto that bus going upward.

This last turn locus on the 13th of March, had my mind thinking logically and asking, "Can the SPX turn upward from a point halfway back up this downward move of only a few days?" Then answering myself with, "No. Not a high percentagoccurrencece." Frequently, indexes short change the structure's desired completeness when underlying sentiment of the smart money stops buying/selling near market turns.

Instances such as those are normal and moderately easy to spot. Some may have found this turn to have been a walk in the park. I didn't, but I didn't walk to far till I 'hit a tree in the park' and exited. Lesson learned, or relearned.

That's why we use stops in our disciplined trading plan. And that's why we completely reversed our Swing trade position to the correct direction. We got on the wrong bus. It has happened before and will most certainly happen again.

Trading is supposed to become a small loss business with large profits coming from correct trades. The strong upward move which continued after we reversed our position confirmed the correctness of reversing and capturing a small amount of the total movement up.

I hope this explains how to do more than be wrong. Hopefully, it helps to show you what MUST be done when you are wrong. The first decision is to exit. Reversing your position is a totally new trade and decision tree matrix, isn't it.

Good trading and God bless.

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns Update – 03/21/2006

Market Timing - posted at 1450 EST

Swing trade – still 100% short, as of the open on Monday, March 20th.

Investor core – still in 100% cash


Expecting a upward bounce after a decline to SPX 1298 would be normal. The double gap just above SPX 1306 is visible on the 5 minute chats. That level might become resistance.

We will post an update after the close after evaluating the balance of the afternoon session.

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns Update – 03/20/2006

Market Timing - posted at 0940 EST

Swing trade – Going to 100% short at the open today, Monday, March 20th.

Investor core – still in 100% cash


The primary target level for this Swing trade is SPX 1282-86. Then we should see SPX 1245-50 by early next week.

We believe today should contain new highs at a level of SPX 1315. This should be the limit of this upward move for the present.

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns – 03/20/2006

Market Timing - posted 0830 EST

Swing trade – Going to 100% short at the open today, Monday, March 20th.

Investor core – still in 100% cash

A 7 day delay is now in effect at the TT site on our signals. The email resulting from our being the top timing developer has become too much to manage. We have a remedy in place for the website. As soon as the technical and legal matters are finalized, we will be up and running.

Why don't you tell a friend or two (or more) about this service?

More to come today.

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin