Timing Market Turns 4 - 04/21/2006

Market Timing for Daily and Intraday Trading Options, Futures and ETF's on SPX, NDX, and DJIA.

Our Swing position - 100% cash position again.

Our Investor core position - we will remain in cash till SPX 1290 is breached again.

Time loci, 5 minute bars, SPX:
0955
1025
1100
1120
1135
1145
1200
1205
1215
1235
1315
1400
1505
1515
1540


Have a nice weekend.

Good Trading and God bless you.

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns 3 - 04/21/2006

Market Timing for Daily and Intraday Trading Options, Futures and ETF's on SPX, NDX, and DJIA.

Our Swing position - 100% cash position again.

Our Investor core position - we will remain in cash till SPX 1290 is breached again.

Time loci, 5 minute bars, SPX:
0955
1025
1100
1120
1135
1145
1200
1205
1215
1235
1315



I will post updates at 1030, 1130 and 1300

Good Trading and God bless you.

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns 2 - 04/21/2006

Market Timing for Daily and Intraday Trading Options, Futures and ETF's on SPX, NDX, and DJIA.

Our Swing position - 100% cash position again.

Our Investor core position - we will remain in cash till SPX 1290 is breached again.

Time loci, 5 minute bars, SPX:
0955
1025
1100
1120
1135

I will post updates at 1030, 1130 and 1300

Good Trading and God bless you.

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns - 04/21/2006

Market Timing for Daily and Intraday Trading Options, Futures and ETF's on SPX, NDX, and DJIA.

Our Swing position - 100% cash position again.

Our Investor core position - we will remain in cash till SPX 1290 is breached again.

Time loci, 5 minute bars:
0955
1025

I will post updates at 1030, 1130 and 1300

Good Trading and God bless you.

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns 4 - 04/20/2006

Market Timing for Daily and Intraday Trading Options, Futures and ETF's on SPX, NDX, and DJIA.

Posted at 1920 EST

Our Swing position - 100% cash position again.

Our Investor core position - we will remain in cash till SPX 1290 is breached again.

GIVENS:
Given the several time loci due this week and early next week,
Given the dull-to-hyper phases of option expiration weeks (some traders call it 'manipulation'),
Given the bearish state of breadth and sentiment indicators,
Given the pulsive upward movement in the last 3 days,
Given the 3rd daily sell signal today (the first 2 were wrong),
Given the unsustainable slope of the upward move,
Given the two losing trades in a row for the system,
Given the system is still in an unmoved sell phase(quite unusual)
Given the non-trending character of this upward move,
Given sundry other aspects in the internals,

I can't be bullish, short term or longer term.
I have a rule in my daily trading (not intraday trading) that delays my next trade by at least by one day if I have 2 consecutive losing trades.

That means that tomorrow's close is the first eligible time to trade through the TimerTrac.com sytem.

We stay in cash at tomorrow's open even if it gaps 10 points downward atthe open (quite improbable).

Expiration Fridays are often the least active day of an expiration week.

We will stand in cash for tomorrow.


WBB


Previous posts:

You might think -

1. It can't get any more frustrating than these last few days.

2. The indexes will never stop their upward movement.

3. Where is the sell signal that I see?

This is what trading is like. You have runs of winners, and then your signals go unheeded by the markets. That just happens. I take my losses and move on to prepare for the next signal.

Yes, it is still a sell signal. Who will take it?

Good Trading and God bless you.

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns 3 - 04/20/2006

Market Timing for Daily and Intraday Trading Options, Futures and ETF's on SPX, NDX, and DJIA.

Posted at 1630 EST

Our Swing position - 100% cash position again.

Our Investor core position - we will remain in cash till SPX 1290 is breached again.

You might think -

1. It can't get any more frustrating than these last few days.

2. The indexes will never stop their upward movement.

3. Where is the sell signal that I see?

This is what trading is like. You have runs of winners, and then your signals go unheeded by the markets. That just happens. I take my losses and move on to prepare for the next signal.

Yes, it is still a sell signal. Who will take it?


I'll run the data and post more at 1900 EST.


Previous posts:

Stops hit and we will exit this trade.

Suggest short position traders might want to exit immediately. We are wrong about direction.



We expect a slightly higher high intraday, then a lower close. We remain short in the Swing position and will allow for a minor touch of our stops.

All of indicators point toward a downward move - but extreme caution remains the watchword for today and tomorrow as this expiration week ends.

Good Trading and God bless you.

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns 2 - 04/20/2006

Market Timing for Daily and Intraday Trading Options, Futures and ETF's on SPX, NDX, and DJIA.

Posted at 1026 EST

Our Swing position - 100% short position at the opening today with tight stops set just above stated resistance.

Our Investor core position - we will remain in cash till SPX 1290 is breached again.

Stops hit and we will exit this trade.

Suggest short position traders might want to exit immediately. We are wrong about direction.

We expect a slightly higher high intraday, then a lower close. We remain short in the Swing position and will allow for a minor touch of our stops.

All of indicators point toward a downward move - but extreme caution remains the watchword for today and tomorrow as this expiration week ends.

Good Trading and God bless you.

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns - 04/20/2006

Posted at 0830

Market Timing for Daily and Intraday Trading Options, Futures and ETF's on SPX, NDX, and DJIA.

Our Swing position - 100% short position at the opening today with tight stops set just above stated resistance.

Our Investor core position - we will remain in cash till SPX 1290 is breached again (which may be tomorrow).

We expect a slightly higher high intraday, then a lower close. We remain short in the Swing position and will allow for a minor touch of our stops.

All of indicators point toward a downward move - but extreme caution remains the watchword for today and tomorrow as this expiration week ends.

Good Trading and God bless you.

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns - 04/19/2006

Posted at 1035

edited at 1140

Market Timing for Daily and Intraday Trading Options, Futures and ETF's on SPX, NDX, and DJIA.

Our Swing position - 100% short position at the opening today with tight stops set just above stated resistance.

Our Investor core position - we will remain in cash till SPX 1290 is breached again (which may be tomorrow).

The expected opening and downward move near resistance with a high percentage lateral day evolving. Watch for the necesary attempt at new high levels.

SPX time locus points (5 minute bar) this morning: H=possible high; L=possible Low

1040 L
1120 H
1240 H/L ?

More near 1400

WBB

Timing Market Turns - 04/18/2006

Posted at 0028 EST
Market Timing for Daily and Intraday Trading Options, Futures and ETF's on SPX, NDX, and DJIA.

Edited at 0358 - (Hi Yuri. Yes, that's fine. -:} )

Editing functions are still sticky. We are sure it is not our computer or our ISP.

We have many people responding to the email offer. To clarify, this is not a newsletter nor will you receive a solicitation from us. It is free and may never be used if we can solve this issue here or get the website operating. It is ONLY for scenarios like today when everything goes wrong at the worst of times for us and for all of you as readers here.

We will ignore the hotmails, gmails and yahoo mail addresses. Only emails from your Internet Service Provider (whomever you pay for internet access) will be entered into the list.

I am dismayed by the number of readers who indicated that they are still short in some way. I assume that our consistent urging to use stops is being ignored. If you didn't learn the lesson from today's spike, then you probably will be out of trading by the end of May 2006.

Asking where to place stops is asking us to violate U.S. laws and regulations. That is like asking what is the answer to number 5 on a public school test isn't it. We won't break the rules - ever.

Brutal Truths - THIS IS OPTION EXPIRATION WEEK - KNOWN AS THE MARKET'S TWILIGHT ZONE!

1. Do your homework, read a book like John Murphy's. Used ones cost less than shipping at Amazon! Invest in yourself! Trading is like war, guerilla war, nuclear war. You will die, be ruined, hurt those you love if you aren't prepared.

2. I have consistently warned about the aggressive swings with higher volatility ranges and sentiment changes that will prevail over the markets during the next few years. Today was a reasonable example of this. It will happen again and again.

3. Traders love days like today even if like me, they were short at the open. A daytrader would be out of the short by 0935 and likely buying before 1100, pyramiding by 1120 and taking profits by 1215, re-entering long between 1350 and 1400 when the market did not breakdown and out by 1520 for a plump 12 to 15 point day.

What is a trader's position now? Flat and ready for tomorrow's open. If you are long or short now and believe you can trade markets with just the blog ramblings of some old man like me, YOU ARE DEAD WRONG!

Today was an expensive lesson for a few readers. Books cost but a few quid and some enriching hours of reading and studying. Are loss prevention, risk management, money management foreign concepts? Can you explain them? Do you have a plan you can show me that is based on those principles? If not, then stop trying to trade. The trading locomotive will run you over and never slow down. Total ruin is your future reality. I can guarantee it.

If you think this rant is too harsh or mean or condescending, I will refer you to this and previous similar rants - and, then point to today's action asking you why you did what you did?

Nobody ever told me anything like that when I started trading decades ago. If you learn a trade or profession, isn't that learning program quite long? Why do people think trading is any different?

- - My apology to all who know how understated the above comments are. Traders, I hear your 'Amens'. You just don't see the questions I receive. "What is MOC? Where do I place my stop?" It makes me want to stop posting.

To the markets - SPX 1293 may hold as support on a downward reaction if 1301 breaks, and then Monday's lows will be at risk. Resistance is at SPX 1311. Above that level, for a close or for more than 2 hours, the scenario returns to the previous uptend.

If the blog functions tomorrow, I will post frequent updates.

Our Swing position - we will re-enter short position at the opening tomorrow with a tight stop.

Our Investor core position - we will remain in cash till SPX 1290 is breached again (which may be tomorrow).


What to look for tomorrow and Thursday, intraday:

1. A move to cover the gap at SPX 1286.

2. Lateral movement for most of the day with attempts to exceed yesterday's highs.

3. The Q's have resistance at 42.75 and support at 42.30

4. The Dow has resistance at 11310 and support at 11178.

5. The NDX has resistance at 1740 (weak) and support at 1705.

6. The SPX has resistance at 1311 and support at 1301.


Question asked by more than a few - "Am I sure that April 11th was a high?"

As of this moment, I believe so until proved wrong. A pulsive upward movement above SPX 1320-22 would be destructive to that belief. April 11th only applied to the S&P 500. It was early by at least one day. Momentum peaked on April 5th. As you know the Dow topped in March and the NDX topped in January.

If I told you that Thursday this week is a time locus point, what would you be preparing to do? What action (long, short or cash) would you choose? If you don't know a strategy for that information then you should not be trading, should you?

Trading isn't about timing. Timing is about trading. Trading is alot of things, but mostly about you.

Good Trading and God bless you

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns - 04/18/2006

Posted at
Market Timing for Daily and Intraday Trading Options, Futures and ETF's on SPX, NDX, and DJIA.


I don't know why this has happened here, but I had trouble early today posting to the Dow blog. Blogger has a problem with some permissions on the blog. We think and it ruined some functions in my control panel and nothing seems to work as normal. Twenty minutes to load up the text, etc. Then it just stopped. Technical people for blogger are helping.

Murphy.

If this continues to post, I will return later this afternoon to sum the aspects of this 78% retracement of the downward move from April 7.

We have a mail service from AWeber that was to be for the new website. They are best of the lot in their field. If you want to be on a broadcast list, send your first and last name and email address to me through the Comments here. Do not use hotmails like google or yahoo or MSN. Only ISP email from your internet provider. You will get an email in a day or two, and have to click on a link to 'opt-in' or you won't receive any updates.

The Swing and Core positions were stopped out at resistance levels and are all in cash at the close. We may re-enter at the open tomorrow.

We have been trying to get the blogs to work all day. We haven't eaten at all.

I will post something here by midnight EST.

WBB

Timing Market Turns - 04/18/2006
Market Timing for Daily and Intraday Trading Options, Futures and ETF's on SPX, NDX, and DJIA.


I hope this appears on the site.


Murphy rules the internet.

TEST

wbb

Market Timing for Daily and Intraday Trading Options, Futures

















Blog jammed

covering
at

today's close

Timing Market Turns - 04/17/2006

Market Timing for Daily and Intraday Trading Options, Futures and ETF's on SPX, NDX, and DJIA.

Check each index's blog (links to your right) for updates and information about trades.


This is option expiration week and the indexes appear to be in neutral. They may trade laterally this whole week but the probabilities point toward a downward move. The risk for traders is staying too long in their trade with paper profits and hoping for more. Swing traders are also faced with a similar exposure.

Decide on your stops before entry, then stick to them. Take any loss quickly. Remember that this is still a rolling top that is going to try to make emotional traders into angry fools.

I have listed resistance and support levels for each index. They should be good until broken and closed below or above. If you think the support levels are quite wide then look at a daily chart and find tighter ones. I could not find them. The nearby support levels will break easily with any sharp moves backed up by volume.

The law of Physics may play the ‘equal and opposite reaction’ to any spikes today through Wednesday. Sometimes lows break without a test. Other times, lows will be penetrated, bounce to the upper range limit then laterally and then the full breakdown that does not recover back up through and into the channel. I am not referring to a crash scenario, just where support breaks once and for all in that movement or swing.

If resistance breaks and the indexes trade above those levels for more than 2 hours, then stand aside for the day to allow them to settle the direction question.

Check each index's blog (links to your right) for updates and information about trades.


Good Trading and God bless you all.

W. B. Busin