Timing Market Turns Update - 03/10/2006

Market Timing - posted 1549 EST

Swing Trade position - 100% cash

Investment core position - 100% cash


No trade till Monday.

Please check back this weekend for a link to subscribe to for notice of blog updates.


Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns - 03/10/2006

Market Timing - posted 1246 EST

Swing Trade position - 100% cash

Investment core position - 100% cash


We continue to look for a turn for the time locus point on Monday, March 13, 2006. We will not trade until we see some resolve in the structure. If it shows itself as a a high, we will decide whether and how to trade the expected downward move based on the volume pattern and structural character of it's form prior to or during Monday's session. Clearly, a high on Monday will indicate continuation of the current downward corrective movement that began on the February 27th high for the S&P 500 index (SPX).

Adding to the decision process is that Monday will be the first day of option expiration week. Many times the indexes rise into that week and then turn down or vice versa. If we see an opportunity to go short - in only the Swing position - the three indexes near today's close or early during Monday's session, we will update here.


We stated on March 8th:

as we expect SPX 1284 to be seen. It is possible for SPX 1288 to be strong resistance. We think SPX 1294 will prove impossible to penetrate on this small upward correction.

We expect the next significant move in the SPX to be downward with SPX 1250 as a target for support.

The SPX is currently pushing against the 1284 resistance level. We maintain the above resistance levels will stop this small upward move today or Monday.

It does not seem likely that we will see an indication of an upward turn in the indexes until the SPX reaches near the 1245-50 level. This is an important barrier to structural integrity. The penetration of SPX 1220-30 level would signal that a top is set in the SPX. In fact, breaching SPX 1240 on a closing basis, at this time, would raise to prominence several factors that would signal that the indexes had moved fully into a downward corrective role.

This would possibly negate an upward move toward new recent highs in some of the indexes, resulting in only a modest counter-to-the-downward-trend up move. But, we are getting too far ahead of the moment. We will discuss attempts at new highs when we see signals for an upward move.

An unlikely scenario, but remotely possible - a steep decline beginning today and completing during Monday's session in the SPX 1245-50 level. We could easily find ourselves wanting to take a small long position. I would assign a 10% chance to this scenario developing at this time.


Blog housekeeping -

We have been bitten by Murphy's Law in the past weeks as we try to build a website. We might tell this story sometime soon. For example, I am posting from a computer that is not my own. Fortunately, the indexes have behaved according to our general scenario.

As one supportive friend stated early in the web site development process, "You are trying to build a NASA space shuttle that looks and operates like microwave oven." I am beginning to think that was an understatement. It will be worth the extra effort and time if it is easy for you and for me to use. Thank you for your patience.

We hope to be able to give you a link this weekend for an email alert service. It will broadcast to those on the list that we have updated the blog, and in the future, updated the website if that is necessary.

We will update here at around 1530 to 1545 EST today.


Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns - 03/08/2006

Market Timing - posted 0850 EST

Swing Trade position - 100% cash

Investment core position - 100% cash

We took profits yesterday on all positions. We mentioned potential long trades as a possibility. We have decided against it.

We prefer to wait for the next short trade to become available. We will look at the structure of any upward move in the next few days.

We will update each morning, as we expect SPX 1284 to be seen. It is possible for SPX 1288 to be strong resistance. We think SPX 1294 will prove impossible to penetrate on this small upward correction.

We expect the next significant move in the SPX to be downward with SPX 1250 as a target for support.

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns Update – 03/07/2006

Market Timing for Traders and Investors – posted 1515 EST

We have entered orders to exit our short positions in both the swing positions and the core investment positions.

Anything not exited by 1545 EST will be closed with market on close (MOC).

We may enter a few longs with a very small allocation of swing assets on the opening tomorrow.

We will update before the open if we do any trade entry for tomorrow’s action.

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns – 03/07/2006

Market Timing – posted 0918 EST

We have considered and then rejected taking profits today at the open. We have been expecting a modest upward move but from the SPX 1270 level. The time locus for early Wednesday appears prominently and is rising. We have concluded that a small move upward should start then.

If the indexes continue this slide toward SPX 1270 (or even lower) today, we will take profits in ALL our positions, both swing and core investment, near the close.

We still expect to move further downward toward the SPX 1250 level as the March 13th time locus approaches. That time locus should reveal a momentum low and potentially the price low in some indexes. The upward move from this future low should be the final part of the upward move that began three years ago.

We have earlier stated that SPX 1335 is our target for the final high. We still believe that to be the level that will stop this upward move on April 11, 2006.

We cannot possibly over-emphasize the following suggestion to investors. Please use this last upward move into April 11th to get out, or into inverse index funds that take advantage of market declines.

We expect the first movement downward after the April 11th high mark to be swift and deep. We will not be surprised to see 100 S&P 500 points lost in just a few days.

We hope this adds reason to the uncharacteristic trading of the core investor position. It usually has a much longer holding period than the swing position. But when we know that we are approaching a major market high, we prefer to be taking a position and then protecting profits or just simply taking the profit.

Please make your own investment and trading decisions. But make them soon.

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Market Timing - 03/06/2006

Timing Market Turns - posted 0913 EST

Market Timing for Swing Traders – 100% short

Market Timing for Investors – 100% short


We are holding short positions in our Swing Trading positions and our core investor position.

We have tightened our stop level on all positions to SPX 1300 as the trigger point for exiting. A close above SPX 1305 to 1310 will insure that we are wrong about the direction of this swing downward. At that level we would remain in cash.

Our sense is that an expanding structure has continued to build as a corrective measure since the January high. We are trying to keep our view objective and simple. Expanding price structures are volatile, but they do end at some point in time. We believe this one is ending.

We hold SPX 1270 as support in the next downward movement. SPX 1250 is our outer extreme for downward movement on this portion of the corrective movement.


Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin