Timing Market Turns - Down To The Minute

Timing Market Turns for Investors and Traders

01-11-06 09:39 PM

(excerpted from earlier posts at http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=56450&perpage=6&pagenumber=22)


The data is being run on the last several days. I am assuming that we will exit our positions in the Dow, SPX and NDX instruments. We will most likely establish smaller short swing positions in them to catch some of the correction into that January 23rd date.

I'll confirm here in the morning after the open.

We have posited a target of SPX 1285 and then 1310 and 1351 for resistance, and for taking profits. The correction could be rather shallow or a good smashing. Upon the event of a break and close above 1310 by at least 10 points, we will reverse our positions, or simply go to all cash.

We will have a few levels for the timing locus on the 23rd.

We see the SPX (and SPY) price and volume giving better timing loci lately, but the Dow and NDX show a better structural picture.

Sentiment is also at quite bullish levels. It seems prudent to leave a few crumbs in the basket now.

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin


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01-12-06 07:05 AM

Market Timing for Traders-

We have reversed our swing positions at the open to a short position.

Market Timing for Investors-

We have taken profits and are in cash for the core positions in the Dow 30, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100.

The swing positions are expected to last for most of the correction into the time locus of January 23rd.

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin



01-12-06 10:56 PM

Market Timing and Correction Price Levels

We promised to share support levels when we called for a market turn at the time locus for Wednesday/Thursday.

This turn has gotten along quite smartly, hasn't it?

We do show another minor (but rising) locus on Wednesday or early Thursday (we will update that locus as time passes).

Support for the Standard and Poor's 500 Index, as follows:
1267
1260
1230-32
1218
1188

As I posted above, the SPX is yielding better signals. Watch The Dow and NDX for structural completion when the SPX reaches nearby these levels.

We favour a view that holds the 1260 level, but structure and volume patterns will shine a bit of light on this as we move into the monthly option expiration cycle.

Sentiment remains bullish, so it might be allowed that we have a hearty downward swing at hand.

Have a nice Dr. King day off!

Good Trading and God bless.

W. B. Busin





01-17-06 11:01 PM

Market Timing for Wednesday 01/18/2006

Traders may want to take some profits today and then near the close or Thursday's open, re-establish short positions.

We remain short in our swing positions for the SPX, Dow 30 and Nasdaq 100. We will hold through any minor rally today and Thursday.

Investors should remain in cash. Monday, January 23rd will most likely be an excellent time locus turn for buying.

Traders- if the move upward does not start from the opening action, look for the counter trend rally to start in the above mentioned range on the SPX at 1260-1267 level. As I write this the Emini futures are down about 12 points and the Dow mini is down about 90 points.

Two points to add-

The VIX is just up at weak resistance. It can and will be much higher tomorrow unless the Globex rallies significantly.

Lastly, the same scenario exists for the sentiment measures and ratios. They are still indicating persistence in the bullish camp (meaning they are rarely correct). Any rally today will only encourage them even more.

Media is offering "reasons" for the downward move - Iran, Iraq, North Korea, scandal in Congress, Sharon's stroke, bombing in Pakistan - I have likely omitted some blamed event.

Repeat after me - "THIS IS A CORRECTION."

We have been in an upward mode for 3 months. It was time for a rest.

Stay short or in cash. Cash is marvelous.

Good Trading and God bless.

W. B. Busin

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W. B. Busin posts his views and market turn dates at two public sites. You can find his more general views of the market at http://blog.worldvillage.com/business/cat_financial_markets.html , and, as travels and time permits, his intraday timing loci for day traders posted to his journal at the Elite Trader web site, http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=7079fb0b20867133d90092aa21fa0119&threadid=56450&perpage=6&pagenumber=22 Both are titled “Timing Market Turns”.