Timing Market Turns – 03/15/2006

Market Timing - posted 0927 EST

Swing trade – still in cash

Investor core – still in cash

We are going 100% short in only the Swing position sometime today with a stop at SPX 1312. This is a very ultra high risk trade. The better entry may come this Friday. We will use only S&P500 futures and in the money SPX April puts.

I’d rather miss the bus than be hit and dragged by it in the opposite direction. Why? I can always wait for the next one, if it’s going my way.

I just don’t see a buy signal. There was a minor buy on March 8th at the lows for the NYSE. Excluding that one, I just don’t see this upward move being sustainable. The structure looks unusually entropic. It could collapse from this level or slightly higher. That doesn’t mean crash. It means a stall and turn downward is possible. This refers to a very short term view of 3 – 5 days.

We see a good lot of unconfirmed sell signals, and at least 2 may be primed to confirm. The question is, will they and from what level? It is clear to me that this is not the beginning of the move toward the April 11th time locus. This view allows for decline that rebuilds the structural integrity as it proceeds toward the base level of SPX 1240-50. What is instructive about this upward move is that there is still a heart beating in the old bull.

I will update throughout the day without notice. We will go short the TimerTrac Swing position at the open in all 3 indexes.

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns - 03/14/2006

Market Timing - posted 0928 EST

Swing Trade position - 100% cash

Investment core position - 100% cash

Still No Trade

Today looks like it could be the beginning of a spike downward. As I expect volatility this week, the risk of a turnabout could be just as volatile.

The SPX made a glancing blow at 1288 and might try later this week at 1290. The reward to potential reward for being long is nil. Until an upward breakout is coming soon, just not now.

The downward action may entice the day trader. Swing traders should remain in cash.

SPX 1250 is still possible but not likely this week.

Good Trading and God bless.

W. B. Busin

Timing Market Turns - 03/13/2006

Market Timing - posted 0950 EST

Swing Trade position - 100% cash

Investment core position - 100% cash

No trade!

We see a very volatile and choppy week ahead. Lots of spikes, both up and down, yet no functional progress. The structure will not support any sustained movement in either direction.

At this time, we are choosing to remain in cash. We see this upward move as weak and likely to move laterally for a few hours then drop into the close. The counter upward bounce to this drop will likely occur tomorrow. It should hold for nearly a day perhaps. Ultimately, we see the indexes dropping into the end of month before a significant upward move can begin.

We expect to be able to project from the data points, including today, whether March 19th/20th will be a better entry for a short swing trade.

Our resistance levels are still expected to hold in the near term.

Off topic - I am still not on my 'home' computer system. With my current choppy outlook, we are pressing ahead with previously mentioned website related tasks.

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin