Market Timing - posted 0927 EST
Swing trade – still in cash
Investor core – still in cash
We are going 100% short in only the Swing position sometime today with a stop at SPX 1312. This is a very ultra high risk trade. The better entry may come this Friday. We will use only S&P500 futures and in the money SPX April puts.
I’d rather miss the bus than be hit and dragged by it in the opposite direction. Why? I can always wait for the next one, if it’s going my way.
I just don’t see a buy signal. There was a minor buy on March 8th at the lows for the NYSE. Excluding that one, I just don’t see this upward move being sustainable. The structure looks unusually entropic. It could collapse from this level or slightly higher. That doesn’t mean crash. It means a stall and turn downward is possible. This refers to a very short term view of 3 – 5 days.
We see a good lot of unconfirmed sell signals, and at least 2 may be primed to confirm. The question is, will they and from what level? It is clear to me that this is not the beginning of the move toward the April 11th time locus. This view allows for decline that rebuilds the structural integrity as it proceeds toward the base level of SPX 1240-50. What is instructive about this upward move is that there is still a heart beating in the old bull.
I will update throughout the day without notice. We will go short the TimerTrac Swing position at the open in all 3 indexes.
Good Trading and God bless
W. B. Busin
Wednesday, March 15, 2006
Timing Market Turns – 03/15/2006
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1 comment:
I am sorry, Geneva, for the confusion. I'll bet others were also. It was totally my fault. No excuses.
We went short in our Swing trade positions at TimerTrac at the open. We also went short and covered on a day trade for a small loss.
Please understand that we have tried to use the fine tracking tool for our own purposes at TimerTrac. But we have been discovered it seems, doesn't it? :)
Due to their computer tracking system and the apparently large numbers of developers and their signals, the people at timerTrac limit each signal to only capturing the open price or the closing price. If for example, I decide to sell short at 10 A.M. after the market opens, the signal will be be given the closing price for that day. So to get the open price, a signal must be submitted before the open.
Before we were getting attention, we could submit a signal when we wanted to initiate the trade.
We are going to figure out how to do this dual trading thing. It will be harder since we are in a topping process for the next several weeks.
Again, I hope nobody takes any trade based on our words here. Please do your own analysis. We will and have always had losing trades. We have greater staying power with our money management plan. Each person MUST trade for themselves.
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