Timing Market Turns - 04/11/2006

Market Timing for Daily and Intraday Trading Options, Futures and ETF's on SPX, NDX, and DJIA.

Swing trade - 100% short positions. Stop is set at SPX 1320 for today's action only.

Investor core - 100% cash positions. Possible trade today at the close.


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We are entered short in the Swing position at the open, in all indexes.





This is the last of the marquee posts. It is counterproductive. We don't like working against ourselves do we.

I will put some charts on the specific index blogs this afternoon. They won't be what you are expecting. But I believe you may find them interesting.

Please read below here.


WHY DO THIS BLOGGING ABOUT MARKETS?

When we started blogging, we did it because we were getting so much email from traders who subscribed to TimerTrac. We had people calling us and demanding answers. We didn't appreciate those days at all.

Most readers here have been quite kind and responsive. We have not posted most of your comments and questions, but have tried to answer them in the text here. Most of you have responded or recognized them as yours. Interestingly, most questions or comments that we respond to are from several people.

After decades of professional involvement in the business world, I can recognize a good business model from an aspiring model with potential, from a model cast in future failure.

I have seen marvelous products and services disappear from their markets because they had the wrong business model and were unwilling to adapt. We always adapt and we will always try out or test techniques that have potential.

Blogging and RSS may be touted as the next big necessary product/service that all businesses should have, but that might be more fallacy then genuine. Blogging for commercial purposes must have an end - a profitable end.

In my view, most stock market related blogs are manifesting conceited egos that want kudos from readers for information that one can find in a news service. We are not interested in affirmation of our methods of trading or the unique tools we use for trading. We are surprised, although we should not be, by the bloggers and newsletter writers who still think we are in a buy and hold investment world. The last possible buy and hold strategy that works approximately 50% of the time is your personal real estate, that is, owning your home.

Re-learning the same lesson every 20 years is the choice made by foolish men and women. Current earnest believers and holders of gold, bonds and Hummers will be shaking their heads wondering who they can blame for their foolish choices.

In the coming two years of pain, most traders and investors will suffer terribly, both financially and psychologically. You will see it in their behavior, attitudes and their disbelief that markets don't obey their wishes. These weeks and years will seem to others around you like decades of torment to those who haven't learned any lessons from their past.

When they grieving and battered investors and traders have had their breaking point tested so many times, then the blizzard will come and snow them under. They will break, sell all their financial assets and give up.

Why am I writing about this scenario? So you can see it coming, so you can see it arrive and settle over people's lives. So you can avoid it. So you can avoid their effects on you.

I am not predicting an economic depression in the U.S. I am predicting a psychological recession, a relentless grinding down of asset values and then at the end of that process, a stock market that seems to crash. Seemingly crashing and dashing hopes and dreams for those who forgot the lessons taught from 2000 to 2003.

At those psychological, economic and market lows, I will be there as the most aggressive bull you have ever seen or heard of won't I. Why? Because I learned these lessons about myself years ago, and had to learn a few more than once. Also, because I know when the lows will be for the psyche, the economy and for the markets (plus or minus a day or so for the markets.)

If you think I am crazy then you didn't read my article from January 9th that is spreading around the internet. Search for it. It is titled, "A Brief History of 2006". Maybe when we pass the first SPX target of 1220 in the near future, you will see that markets can be timed because people's behavior can be predicted. People are the markets. Markets are people. People dislike change. Changes never change people. People fight to remain themselves, or what they believe they are. People are what they think, what they do and what they love. Why do you think there are so many unGodly people fighting to keep their worldly wants justified?

People are almost too predictable. Traders and investors are predictable (they are people despite the rumours).

Are you predictable?

The markets give us all of the confirmation we could ever wish for in life. We hope the markets give you some confirmations too.

WBB




From the scroller today:

We view SPX 1320 as strong resistance
and 1325 as ultimate potential for an adverse movement.


SPX 1320 is our stop for today.

The stop is set much higher than might be expected at SPX 1320.


The reason is because of our view, as we stated yesterday,

that a quick bursting upward move may actually surpass SPX 1314

during the afternoon session.


The problem with an entry and exit limitation at opens and closes

only for the TimerTrac is protecting the position at a minor or major turn.


If I am sure of a turn and its direction, the generous stop
will help keep the trade alive in the unexpected track of the index,
on the day of the entry.
We are entered short in the Swing position at the open in all indexes.

This a HIGH risk trade.

We will wait for the set up to improve to enter with the Investor core positions.

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin