@2310 EST - Ileft out the lower barrier level for feeling assured that this multi year upward move is quite finished. It is based on structure and price projections. It is SPX 1220-1225. We may see it quite soon.
Market Timing Intraday
Swing trade - SPX 1298 stop hit - 100% cash positions.
Investor core - SPX 1298 stop hit - 100% cash positions.
POSTED AT 2203 EST
The comments of readers are accepted and appreciated. They are about speed and size of each post. Another asked about the status of current positions. The last one was probably during the hours we had not the typical title,date etc. The current positions will always be on the respective pages. We were trying to fix the scroll at the tiem we had no title, etc.
We prefer the scroller that rises upward for readability. It might be as good as we can do for now. For some reason the blue scrollers were supposed rise upwards but don't. The bottom one does. So we will go with that one for the next few days. Please feel free to comment on speed or font size etc.
To the markets - For the next few days, the markets will show the direction of the next significant move. As you know, we believe it to be downward. There is a chance that we are in the second phase of the beginning structure of the decline. That would allow for one more upward move. This upward move could be a swift blowoff or just a retrace upward.
ADDED:
We prefer a general scenario of new lows in the morning session and a strong upward movement that may finish by the close. This is an ideal picture which rarely is granted to mortals.
The low percentage scenario is that of a blowoff upward movemnt that makes new highs in the SPX but unlikely for the DOW. Since the NDX has been making new highs during previous days and weeks, we see this movement nearing completion in structure.
A warning to us and to others is to not try to beat the market's punch, that is, let the market commit to a direction before jumping on the train. We are mindful of that anything can happen. What is expected by many is likely temporary, if at all.
The market has risen for just over three and a half years hasnt it. It has been powerful at times and weak at other times. In all the months and weeks, it has not been weak enough to collapse. It may be primed for a fearful drop to extinguish the hopes and dreams of bullish investors and traders.
It does that by dropping so rapidly and so far that many will try to bottom pick when they see a buy signal that does not go upward enough to cover commissions. They are trapped. It happens at bottoms too as an upward move begins. In a decline like this, the more intraday buy signals that abort, the market is whispering "I have farther to go before I sleep." We may take a signal before the open or wait till a price level is broken and structure reveals its intent. In many ways, this structure is as complex as I have seen.
The 2000 high mark was also quite complicated. I am reminded of it by the coincidental nearby timing of the DOW high point in January 2000 and the March 2000 high for the SPX. If you can, look at the weekly charts of both those highs. Both had quite large swings from week to week didnt they.
We will let the market point us and then we will move to enter with as low a risk as we can.
More in the morning. We will attempt to have a better looking scroller tomorrow and in the days to come.
Good Trading and God bless
W. B. Busin
No comments:
Post a Comment